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草业学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (2): 108-116.DOI: 10.11686/cyxb20140213

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

青海省三江源牧区雪灾综合风险评估

王世金1,魏彦强2,方苗2   

  1. 1.中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所 冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,甘肃 兰州 730000;
    2.中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃 兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2013-05-23 出版日期:2014-02-25 发布日期:2014-04-20
  • 作者简介:王世金(1975-),男,甘肃金昌人,助理研究员,博士。E-mail:xiaohanjin@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家重大科学研究计划(973计划)项目(2013CBA01808),中国博士后科学基金(2013M530436),冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室自主课题(SKLCS-ZZ-2012-03-03)和开放基金(SKLCS2011-04)资助。

Integrated risk assessment of snow disaster in the Three Rivers Source Region, China

WANG Shi-jin1, WEI Yan-qiang2, FANG Miao2   

  1. 1.State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Cold and Arid Region Environment and Engineering Research Institute, CAS, Lanzhou 730000, China;
    2. Cold and Arid Region Environment and Engineering Research Institute, CAS, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Received:2013-05-23 Online:2014-02-25 Published:2014-04-20

摘要: 本研究采用Logistic回归方法,以ArcGIS和SPSS软件为工具,选取2010年冬春季平均雪深、积雪日数、雪灾重现率、坡度、牲畜密度、冬春超载率、产草量、地区GDP和农牧民纯收入9项雪灾风险因子,建立了三江源地区雪灾综合风险评估Logistic回归模型,并对其进行了风险评价与区划。结果显示,1)1960-1980年,三江源地区冬春季雪灾发生频次处于一较长时期的低值期。1980以后,雪灾频率呈增加态势,期间雪灾频次占59年来雪灾总数的62%。在空间分布上,雪灾主要集中在三江源地区东南部一带。2)回归模型系数中,平均雪深、雪灾重现率、产草量和牲畜密度因子对雪灾影响程度占有绝对权重,其回归系数分别为2.17,1.38,1.27和0.92,而农牧民人均纯收入的影响程度则最低。3)2010年,三江源地区雪灾极高风险区主要集中在巴颜喀拉山南部的玉树、称多、杂多和囊谦县,以及巴颜喀拉山与阿尼玛卿山之间的甘德、达日、玛沁和久治县,而极低风险区则地处西部可可西里无人区和沱沱河流域大部分区域。4)根据Logistic回归模型,在ArcGIS中绘制的三江源雪灾综合风险区划图与历史实际雪灾空间分布基本吻合。该研究不仅可为防灾减灾救灾部门制定灾前减灾规划、灾后救助和恢复决策提供科学依据,而且对于牧区减轻雪灾损失、保障畜牧业可持续发展也具有重要意义。

Abstract: The average snow depth, snow day, snow disaster periodicity, slope, livestock density, overloading rate of livestock in winter and spring, grass production, regional GDP and net income of the farmers in 2010 were selected as the main risk factors of snow disaster. A regression model of integrated risk assessment of snow disaster was established and the integrated risks in the Three Rivers Source Region were systematically evaluated using logistic regression methods and the ArcGIS and SPSS software tools. 1) During 1960-1980, the frequency of snow disaster was relatively lower in the Three Rivers Source Region in winter and spring. After 1980, the frequency showed a trend to increase. During 1980-2008, the numbers of snow disasters accounted for 62% of the total numbers in the past 59 years. In spatial distribution, snow disasters were mainly concentrated in the southeastern area of the Three Rivers Source Region. 2) Regression results of integrated risk showed that the average snow depth, snow disaster periodicity, grass production and livestock density had higher importance or with regression coefficients of 2.17, 1.38, 1.27 and 0.92 respectively, while net income of the farmers had lower importance than other factors. 3) The areas with higher integrated risks of snow disaster were located mainly in Yushu, Chengduo, Zaduo and Nangqian counties in southern regions of the Bayan Har Mountains and Gande, Dari, Maqin and Jiuzhi counties between the A'nyemaqen Range and Bayan Har Mountains A'nyemaqen Range in 2010, while the areas with lower integrated risk were concentrated in most areas of no man's land in Hoh Xil and in the Togton river basin. 4) Assessment results of integrated risk of snow disaster accorded with the actual distribution of snow disasters in the Three Rivers Source Region in the past 59 years. This study is of great significance for mitigating the losses from snow disasters and ensuring the sustainable stockbreeding development in pastoral areas. It can provide a scientific basis for mitigation planning pre-disaster and for decision strategies of assistance and recovery post-disaster for the local government departments.

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