气候变化与人为活动对三江源草地生产力影响的定量研究

doi:10.11686/cyxb2016420

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 近数十年来在气候变化和生态工程实施的背景下,作为我国重要的生态屏障的三江源地区的气候条件和人为干扰都发生了明显的变化。本研究借助CASA模型和气候生产力模型,结合对土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)的分析,定量评估了气候变化、LUCC和草地管理措施对三江源草地净初级生产力(NPP)变化的影响。结果表明,1)2001-2012年间,三江源草地总面积增加了6749 km²,草地的平均NPP下降了5.47%,总NPP下降了5.00%。 2)由新增加的草地带来的NPP总量为1293.12 Gg C,由转出草地带来的NPP总量损失为215.42 Gg C。 3) 2012年气候总NPP比2001年下降了20.27%,而人为总NPP增加了41.51%。12年间气候变化的趋势不利于草地植被的生长,而人为活动对草地植被的负面影响力有明显减弱。4)由气候因素引起的草地总NPP变化量为-165.28 Tg C,而管理措施引起的总NPP变化量为140.03 Tg C; LUCC导致的草地总NPP变化量为2.22 Tg C。草地管理措施的改进对遏制草地退化起到了决定性作用。

Abstract: The Three-River Source Region (TRSR), a region with key importance for the ecological security of China, has been affected by climate change and by changes in human activities driven by a series of ecological restoration projects in recent decades. In this study, we analyzed land use and cover change (LUCC) in the TRSR and the consequent changes in grassland net primary productivity (NPP). For this analysis, we used the CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) model, a climatic production model, and land use data for the study area from 2001 and 2012, which were derived from the MODIS global land cover product. The contributions of LUCC, land management measures, and climate change to NPP variations were analyzed quantitatively. The results showed that, during the 12 years, the net increase in grassland area was 6749 km², and the average NPP and total NPP of grassland decreased by 5.47% and 5.00%, respectively. New grassland contributed 1293.12 Gg C (Gg=10⁹ g) to total NPP, while the loss of grassland led to a decrease of 215.42 Gg C. The climatic total NPP of grasslands decreased by 20.27% and the anthropogenic total NPP increased by 41.51%. These results indicate that climate conditions have negatively affected vegetation growth, whereas human activities have favorably affected vegetation recovery. The contributions of climate change, LUCC, and improved management measures to the variation in total NPP were -165.28 Tg C, 2.22 Tg C, and 140.03 Tg C, respectively. Therefore, improving grassland management measures can significantly reduce grassland deterioration due to climate change.

中图分类号:

张颖, 章超斌, 王钊齐, 杨悦, 张艳珍, 李建龙, 安如. 气候变化与人为活动对三江源草地生产力影响的定量研究[J]. 草业学报, 2017, 26(5): 1-14.

ZHANG Ying, ZHANG Chao-Bin, WANG Zhao-Qi, YANG Yue, ZHANG Yan-Zhen, LI Jian-Long, AN Ru. Quantitative assessment of relative roles of climate change and human activities on grassland net primary productivity in the Three-River Source Region, China[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2017, 26(5): 1-14.

参考文献

[1] Ren J Z, Lin H L. Assumed plan on grassland ecological reconstruction in the source region of Yangtse River, Yellow River and Lantsang River. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2005, 14(2): 1-8.
任继周, 林慧龙. 江河源区草地生态建设构想. 草业学报, 2005, 14(2): 1-8.
[2] Wang K, Hong F Z, Zong J Y. Resource and their sustainable utility in the “Three-River Headwaters” Region. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2005, 13(S1): 28-31.
王堃, 洪绂曾, 宗锦耀. “三江源”地区草地资源现状及持续利用途径. 草地学报, 2005, 13(S1): 28-31.
[3] Liu J Y, Xu X L, Shao Q Q. Grassland degradation in the “Three-River Headwaters” region, Qinghai Province. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2008, 18(4): 364-376.
刘纪远, 徐新良, 邵全琴. 近30年来青海三江源地区草地退化的时空特征. 地理学报, 2008, 18(4): 364-376.
[4] Li J M, Cai H, Cheng Q, et al . Characterizing the evapotranspiration of a degraded grassland in the Sanjiangyuan Region of Qinghai province. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2012, 21(3): 223-233.
李婧梅, 蔡海, 程茜, 等. 青海省三江源地区退化草地蒸散特征. 草业学报, 2012, 21(3): 223-233.
[5] Carlson T N, Arthur S T. The impact of land use-land cover changes due to urbanization on surface microclimate and hydrology: a satellite perspective. Global & Planetary Change, 2000, 25(1): 49-65.
[6] Islam K R, Weil R R. Land use effects on soil quality in a tropical forest ecosystem of Bangladesh. Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment, 2000, 79(1): 9-16.
[7] Weber A, Fohrer N, Möller D. Long-term land use changes in a mesoscale watershed due to socio-economic factors-effects on landscape structures and functions. Ecological Modelling, 2001, 140(1): 125-140.
[8] Gao Q, Li X B, Yang X S. Responses of vegetation and primary production in North-South Transect of Eastern China to global change under land use constraint. Acta Botanica Sinica, 2003, 45(11): 1274-1283.
[9] Cramer W, Kicklighter D W, Bondeau A, et al . Comparing global models of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP): overview and key results. Global Change Biology, 1999, 5(S1): 1-15.
[10] Matsushita B, Tamura M. Integrating remotely sensed data with an ecosystem model to estimate net primary productivity in East Asia. Remote Sensing of Environment, 2002, 81(1): 58-66.
[11] Field C B, Behrenfeld M J, Randerson J T, et al . Primary production of the biosphere: Integrating terrestrial and oceanic components. Science, 1998, 281: 237-240.
[12] Steffen W, Noble I, Canadell J, et al . The terrestrial carbon cycle: implications for the Kyoto Protocol. Science, 1998, 280: 1393-1394.
[13] Jiang L P, Qin Z H, Xie W. A research of monitoring grassland degradation based on mono temporal MODIS data. Chinese Journal of Grassland, 2007, 29(1): 39-43.
姜立鹏, 覃志豪, 谢雯. 基于单时相MODIS数据的草地退化遥感监测研究. 中国草地学报, 2007, 29(1): 39-43.
[14] Mu S J, Zhou S X, Chen Y Z, et al . Assessing the impact of restoration-induced land conversion and management alternatives on net primary productivity in Inner Mongolian grassland, China. Global and Planetary Change, 2013, 108(3): 29-41.
[15] Zhou W, Sun Z G, Li J L, et al . Desertification dynamic and the relative roles of climate change and human activities in desertification in the Heihe River Basin based on NPP. Journal of Arid Land, 2013, 5(4): 465-479.
[16] Zhan G C, Wang X, Li J, et al . Roles of climate changes and human interventions in land degradation: a case study by net primary productivity analysis in China’s Shiyanghe Basin. Environmental Earth Sciences, 2011, 64(8): 2183-2193.
[17] Yi X S, Yin Y Y, Li G S, et al . Temperature variation in recent 50 years in the Three-River Headwaters Region of Qinghai Province. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(11): 1451-1465.
易湘生, 尹衍雨, 李国胜, 等. 青海三江源地区近50年来的气温变化. 地理学报, 2011, 66(11): 1451-1465.
[18] Gong P, Chen Z X. Regional vegetation phenology monitoring based on MODIS. Chinese Journal of Soil Science, 2009, 40(2): 213-217.
宫攀, 陈仲新. 基于MODIS数据的东北地区植被物候参数提取. 土壤通报, 2009, 40(2): 213-217.
[19] Ali A, Bie C D, Skidmore A K, et al . Detecting long-duration cloud contamination in hyper-temporal NDVI imagery. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 2013, 24(12): 22-31.
[20] Mu S J, Li J L, Chen Y Z, et al . Spatial differences of variations of vegetation coverage in Inner Mongolia during 2001-2010. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(9): 1255-1268.
穆少杰, 李建龙, 陈奕兆, 等. 2001-2010年内蒙古植被覆盖度时空变化特征. 地理学报, 2012, 67(9): 1255-1268.
[21] Jönsson P, Eklundh L. TIMESAT—A program for analyzing time-series of satellite sensor data. Computers & Geosciences, 2004, 30(8): 833-845.
[22] Friedl M A, Sulla-Menashe D, Tan B, et al . MODIS collection 5 global land cover: Algorithm refinements and characterization of new datasets. Remote Sensing of Environment, 2010, 114(1): 168-182.
[23] Ran Y H, Li X, Lu L. Accuracy evaluation of the four remote sensing based land cover products over China. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2010, 31(2): 391-401.
[24] Li X, Cheng G D, Lu L. Comparison study of spatial interpolation methods of air temperature over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Plateau Meteorology, 2003, 26(6): 565-573.
李新, 程国栋, 卢玲. 青藏高原气温分布的空间插值方法比较. 高原气象, 2003, 26(6): 565-573.
[25] Liu Z H, Mcvicar T R, Van Niel T G, et al . Introduction of the professional interpolation software for meteorology data: ANUSPLINN. Meteorological Monthly, 2008, 34(2): 92-100.
刘志红, Mcvicar T R, Van Niel T G, 等. 专用气候数据空间插值软件ANUSPLIN及其应用. 气象, 2008, 34(2): 92-100.
[26] Qian Y L, Lv H Q, Zhang Y H. Application and assessment of spatial interpolation method on daily meteorological elements based on ANUSPLIN software. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2010, 26(2): 7-15.
钱永兰, 吕厚荃, 张艳红. 基于ANUSPLIN软件的逐日气象要素插值方法应用与评估. 气象与环境学报, 2010, 26(2): 7-15.
[27] Hijmans R J, Cameron S E, Parra J L, et al . Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 2005, 25(15): 1965-1978.
[28] Price D T, Mckenney D W, Nalder I A, et al . A comparison of two statistical methods for spatial interpolation of Canadian monthly mean climate data. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2000, 101(2): 81-94.
[29] Peng H L, Liu F, Duo H R, et al . The comparison of spatial interpolation methods on temperature and precipitation of Sanjiangyuan area. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2010, 38(18): 9646-9649.
彭红兰, 刘芳, 朵海瑞, 等. 三江源地区温度和降水量空间插值方法比较. 安徽农业科学, 2010, 38(18): 9646-9649.
[30] Wu Y B, Tan H, Deng Y, et al . Partitioning pattern of carbon flux in a Kobresia grassland on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau revealed by field 13 C pulse-labeling. Global Change Biology, 2010, 16(8): 2322-2333.
[31] Zhu W Q, Pan Y Z, Zhang J S. Estimation of net primary productivity of Chinese terrestrial vegetation based on remote sensing. Journal of Plant Ecology, 2007, 31(3): 413-424.
朱文泉, 潘耀忠, 张锦水. 中国陆地植被净初级生产力遥感估算. 植物生态学报, 2007, 31(3): 413-424.
[32] Potter C S, Randerson J T, Field C B, et al . Terrestrial ecosystem production: a process model based on global satellite and surface data. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 1993, 7(4): 811-841.
[33] Mu S J, Li J L, Zhou W, et al . Spatial-temporal distribution of net primary productivity and its relationship with climate factors in Inner Mongolia from 2001 to 2010. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2013, 33(12): 3752-3764.
穆少杰, 李建龙, 周伟, 等. 2001—2010年内蒙古植被净初级生产力的时空格局及其与气候的关系. 生态学报, 2013, 33(12): 3752-3764.
[34] Yu D Y, Shi P J, Shao H B, et al . Modelling net primary productivity of terrestrial ecosystems in East Asia based on an improved CASA ecosystem model. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2009, 30(18): 4851-4866.
[35] Yu D Y, Shi P J, Han G Y, et al . Forest ecosystem restoration due to a national conservation plan in China. Ecological Engineering, 2011, 37(9): 1387-1397.
[36] Xu D Y, Kang X W, Liu Z L, et al . Assessing the relative role of climate change and human activities in sandy desertification of Ordos region, China. Science in China (Series D), 2009, (4): 516-528.
许端阳, 康相武, 刘志丽, 等. 气候变化和人类活动在鄂尔多斯地区沙漠化过程中的相对作用研究. 中国科学: D辑, 2009, (4): 516-528.
[37] Qinghai Statistical Bureau. Qinghai Statistical Yearbook[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2001-2012.
青海统计局. 青海统计年鉴[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2001-2012.
[38] Cheng G, Wu T. Responses of permafrost to climate change and their environmental significance, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Journal of Geophysical Research-Earth Surface, 2007, 112(F2): 93-104.
[39] Wang G, Wang Y, Li Y, et al . Influences of alpine ecosystem responses to climatic change on soil properties on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. Catena, 2007, 70(3): 506-514.
[40] Du J Q, Ahati J, Zhao C X, et al . Analysis of vegetation dynamics using GIMMS NDVI3g in the Three-Rivers Headwater Region from 1982 to 2012. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2016, 25(1): 1-12.
杜加强, 贾尔恒·阿哈提, 赵晨曦, 等. 三江源区近30年植被生长动态变化特征分析. 草业学报, 2016, 25(1): 1-12.
[41] Xu W X, Gu S, Xu W J, et al . Spatial pattern and its variations of aridity/humidity during 1971-2010 in Three-River Source Region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Arid Land Geography, 2012, 35(1): 46-55.
徐维新, 古松, 苏文将, 等. 1971-2010年三江源地区干湿状况变化的空间特征. 干旱区地理(汉文版), 2012, 35(1): 46-55.
[42] Dou R Y. The climate change and adaptation strategies for sustainable development in the Three-River Headwaters Region in Qinghai Province in recent half century. Ecological Economy, 2016, (2): 165-171.
窦睿音. 近半个世纪三江源地区气候变化与可持续发展适应对策研究. 生态经济(中文版), 2016, (2): 165-171.
[43] Li H M, Zhang A L. Response of grassland climate productivity to climate change in Sanjiangyuan Regions. Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University: Social Sciences Edition, 2014, (1): 124-130.
李惠梅, 张安录. 三江源草地气候生产力对气候变化的响应. 华中农业大学学报: 社会科学版, 2014, (1): 124-130.
[44] Guo P P, Yang D, Wang H, et al . Climate change and its effects on climatic productivity in the Three-River Headwaters Region in 1960-2011. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2013, 32(10): 2806-2814.
郭佩佩, 杨东, 王慧, 等. 1960-2011年三江源地区气候变化及其对气候生产力的影响. 生态学杂志, 2013, 32(10): 2806-2814.
[45] Zhang H Y, Fan J W, Shao Q Q, et al . Ecosystem dynamics in the‘Returning Rangeland to Grassland’ programs, China. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2016, 25(4): 1-15.
张海燕, 樊江文, 邵全琴, 等. 2000-2010年中国退牧还草工程区生态系统宏观结构和质量及其动态变化. 草业学报, 2016, 25(4): 1-15.
[46] Qi W, Bai W Q, Zhang Y L, et al . Effects of ecological engineering on net primary production in the Chang Tang and Sanjiangyuan national nature reserves on the Tibetan Plateau. Biodiversity Science, 2016, 24(2): 127-135.
祁威, 摆万奇, 张镱锂, 等. 生态工程实施对羌塘和三江源国家级自然保护区植被净初级生产力的影响. 生物多样性, 2016, 24(2): 127-135.
[47] Nemani R R, Keelin g C D, Hashimoto H, et al . Climate-driven increases in global terrestrial net primary production from 1982 to 1999. Science, 2003, 300: 1560-1563.
[48] Piao S L, Fang J Y, He J S. Variations in vegetation net primary production in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, China, from 1982 to 1999. Climatic Change, 2006, 74(1): 253-267.
[49] Zhang Y, Zhang C B, Wang Z Q, et al . Vegetation dynamics and its driving forces from climate change and human activities in the Three-River Source Region, China from 1982 to 2012. Science of the Total Environment, 2016, 563(9): 210-220.
[50] Gao Y H, Zhou X, Wang Q, et al . Vegetation net primary productivity and its response to climate change during 2001-2008 in the Tibetan Plateau. Science of the Total Environment, 2013, 444(2): 356-362.
[51] Chen G C. The Ecological Protection and Construction of the Three-river Source Nature Reserve[M]. Qinghai: Qinghai People’s Press, 2007.
陈桂琛. 三江源自然保护区生态保护与建设[M]. 青海: 青海人民出版社, 2007.
[52] Zhou W. The Spatial-temporal Dynamic Analysis of Grassland Ecosystem Productivity and its Influence Factors in China[D]. Nanjing: Nanjing University, 2014.
周伟. 中国草地生态系统生产力时空动态及其影响因素分析[D]. 南京: 南京大学, 2014.
[53] Xu X L, Liu J Y, Shao Q Q, et al . The dynamic changes of ecosystem spatial pattern and structure in the Three-River Headwaters region in Qinghai Province during recent 30 years. Geographical Research, 2008, 27(4): 829-838.
徐新良, 刘纪远, 邵全琴, 等. 30年来青海三江源生态系统格局和空间结构动态变化. 地理研究, 2008, 27(4): 829-838.
[54] Chen X G, Zhang X Q, Zhang Y P, et al . Carbon sequestration potential of the stands under the Grain for Green Program in Yunnan Province, China. Forest Ecology & Management, 2009, 258(3): 3980-3984.
[55] Qinghai Provincial Commission of Development and Reform. Ecological Patriotic Green Gratitude[EB/OL].(2015-04-14)[2016-11-05]. http://www.qhfgw.gov.cn/gzdt/tpxw/201504/t20150414_608117.shtml.
青海省发展和改革委员会. 生态报国绿色感恩[EB/OL]. (2015-04-14)[2016-11-05]. http://www.qhfgw.gov.cn/gzdt/tpxw/201504/t20150414_608117.shtml.
[56] Zhang L X, Fan J W, Shao Q Q, et al . Changes in grassland yield and grazing pressure in the Three Rivers headwater region before and after the implementation of the eco-restoration project. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 23(5): 116-123.
张良侠, 樊江文, 邵全琴, 等. 生态工程前后三江源草地产草量与载畜压力的变化分析. 草业学报, 2014, 23(5): 116-123.
[57] Zhang J, Zhang L, Liu W, et al . Livestock-carrying capacity and overgrazing status of alpine grassland in the Three-River Headwaters region, China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2014, 24(2): 303-312.
[58] Dan J J. Ecological protection effects, problems and countermeasures. Research On Development, 2015, (5): 21-24.
单菁菁. 三江源生态保护成效、问题与对策. 开发研究, 2015, (5): 21-24.
[59] Shi F T, Ma R P, Chang Q. Investigation of implementation of the project of returning grazingland to grass in the Three-river Headwaters Region. Pruataculture & Animal Husbandry, 2011, (8): 31-38.
石凡涛, 马仁萍, 常琪. 三江源地区退牧还草工程实施情况调查. 草业与畜牧, 2011, (8): 31-38.