牧户雪灾气象指数保险支付意愿分析——以甘南牧区为例

doi:10.11686/cyxb2024046

草业学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (12): 13-22.DOI: 10.11686/cyxb2024046

牧户雪灾气象指数保险支付意愿分析——以甘南牧区为例

李芙凝¹^,²(), 柴天舒³, 秦泽平²^,⁴, 唐增²^,⁴^,⁵()

^1.甘肃省农业信息中心，甘肃兰州 730020
^2.兰州大学草地农业科技学院，甘肃兰州 730020
^3.中央民族大学理学院，北京 100081
^4.兰州大学草种创新与草地农业生态系统全国重点实验室，甘肃兰州 730020
^5.山西农业大学饲草高效生产模式创新重点实验室，山西太谷 030801

收稿日期:2024-02-02 修回日期:2024-03-16 出版日期:2024-12-20 发布日期:2024-10-09
通讯作者: 唐增
作者简介:E-mail： tangz@lzu.edu.cn
李芙凝（1994-），女，山西运城人，硕士。E-mail： lifn23@foxmail.com
基金资助:
山西农业大学饲草高效生产模式创新重点实验室开放基金资助课题(FR2023-03);中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目(GS2023ZDI01)

Analysis of herders’ willingness to pay for snow disaster weather-index insurance—A case study in the Gannan Pastoral area

Fu-ning LI¹^,²(), Tian-shu CHAI³, Ze-ping QIN²^,⁴, Zeng TANG²^,⁴^,⁵()

^1.Gansu Agricultural Information Center，Lanzhou 730020，China
^2.College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology，Lanzhou University，Lanzhou 730020，China
^3.College of Science，Minzu University of China，Beijing 100081，China
^4.State Key Laboratory of Herbage Improvement and Grassland Agro-ecosystems，Lanzhou 730020，China
^5.Key Laboratory of Efficient Forage Production Mode，Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs，College of Grassland Science，Shanxi Agricultural University，Taigu 030801，China

Received:2024-02-02 Revised:2024-03-16 Online:2024-12-20 Published:2024-10-09
Contact: Zeng TANG

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气象指数保险作为一种新型保险产品，得到国内外广泛推崇，但目前尚未开展针对高寒草原牧区的气象指数保险应用。实践中牧户对保险产品的需求程度决定指数保险方案是否具有推广与应用价值。基于甘南草原牧区96户牧户调研数据，运用条件价值评估法（CVM）探讨了牧户对于雪灾指数保险产品的支付意愿（WTP）及其影响因素，以期为指数保险在研究区的开发提供科学支撑。主要结果如下：1）研究区牧户对指数保险的平均支付意愿高于当前畜牧业保险保费；2）但牧户的平均支付意愿仍低于指数保险方案提供的保费；3）规模化、专业化养殖牧户对于新型指数保险产品支付意愿更高。以上结果表明，研究区牧户愿意为保障水平更好的指数保险产品支付更高的价格，但是由于投保成本高，现阶段指数保险仍不能取代当前低保费、高覆盖的畜牧业保险产品，但可作为现有保险的补充，满足部分规模化、专业化养殖牧户的保障需求。未来应该考虑差异化的保险补贴政策，综合提高研究区保险保障水平。

关键词: 支付意愿, 雪灾气象指数保险, 条件价值评估法, 甘南牧区

Abstract:

Weather-index insurance is a novel insurance product that has gained widespread recognition globally. However， its application in alpine grassland pastoral areas remains unexplored. Herders’ demand for insurance products directly influences the applicability and promotion potential of index insurance schemes. In this study， we investigated herders’ willingness to pay （WTP） for snow disaster index insurance， and the associated influencing factors， in the Gannan grassland pastoral area using the contingent valuation method （CVM）. The overall aim of this study was to provide scientific support for the development of index insurance as a part of the insurance industry in the study area. The key findings of our study are as follows： 1） The average WTP for index insurance in the study area significantly exceeds the current livestock insurance premium； 2） However， it is still lower than the premiums associated with the offered indexed insurance schemes； 3） Large-scale and specialized herders exhibit a higher WTP for new index insurance products. Together， these results suggest that herders in the study area are willing to pay a higher premium for index insurance products offering enhanced protection. Nevertheless， the high cost of index insurance currently restricts its potential to replace existing lower-cost， high-coverage insurance options. At this stage， it can serve as a complementary product to address the security needs of some large-scale and specialized herding operations. Moving forward， implementing differentiated insurance subsidy policies will be crucial to strengthen the insurance protection capacity within the study area.

Key words: willingness to pay （WTP）, snow disaster weather-index insurance, contingent valuation method （CVM）, Gannan pastoral area

李芙凝, 柴天舒, 秦泽平, 唐增. 牧户雪灾气象指数保险支付意愿分析——以甘南牧区为例[J]. 草业学报, 2024, 33(12): 13-22.

Fu-ning LI, Tian-shu CHAI, Ze-ping QIN, Zeng TANG. Analysis of herders’ willingness to pay for snow disaster weather-index insurance—A case study in the Gannan Pastoral area[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2024, 33(12): 13-22.

图/表 5

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项目Item	触发指数Trigger index	理赔方式Insurance payments indemnity
轻灾保险Light disaster insurance	连续积雪天数达到约定指数4~10 d。The number of days with continuous snow cover reached the trigger index of 4-10 d.	每只羊每天赔付1.8 kg饲料。Each sheep is paid 1.8 kg of feed per day.
中灾保险Medium disaster insurance	连续积雪天数达到约定指数10~20 d。The number of days with continuous snow cover reached the trigger index of 10-20 d.	赔付保险金额的60%。Pay 60% of the insured amount.
重灾保险Serious disaster insurance	连续积雪天数达到约定指数20 d以上。The number of days with continuous snow cover reached the trigger index of more than 20 d.	赔付保险金额的80%。Pay 80% of the insured amount.

项目Item	触发指数Trigger index	理赔方式Insurance payments indemnity
轻灾保险Light disaster insurance	连续积雪天数达到约定指数4~10 d。The number of days with continuous snow cover reached the trigger index of 4-10 d.	每只羊每天赔付1.8 kg饲料。Each sheep is paid 1.8 kg of feed per day.
中灾保险Medium disaster insurance	连续积雪天数达到约定指数10~20 d。The number of days with continuous snow cover reached the trigger index of 10-20 d.	赔付保险金额的60%。Pay 60% of the insured amount.
重灾保险Serious disaster insurance	连续积雪天数达到约定指数20 d以上。The number of days with continuous snow cover reached the trigger index of more than 20 d.	赔付保险金额的80%。Pay 80% of the insured amount.

变量 Variable	变量定义或赋值方法 Definition and assignment	平均 Mean	标准差Standard deviation （SD）
牧户受教育程度Education of herders	1=没有受过教育No education； 2=小学Primary school； 3=初中Junior high school； 4=高中或中专High school or technical secondary school； 5=大学及以上College and above	1.56	0.75
牧户从事畜牧业的时间Time of herders engaged in animal husbandry	牧户从事畜牧业的时间Time of herders engaged in animal husbandry （Month）	8.80	4.91
家庭中是否有政府工作人员Whether there are government employees in the family or not	1=有Yes； 0=没有No	0.09	0.27
家庭人口数Number of family members	家庭人口总数Number of family members	5.68	1.97
家庭是否以畜牧业为主要生计Whether the family relies on animal husbandry as its main livelihood	1=是Yes；0=否No	0.77	0.43
羊的数量The number of sheep	养殖羊的总数Total number of sheep （sheep-unit）	52.31	81.39
畜牧业纯收入Net income of animal husbandry	畜牧业纯收入Net income of animal husbandry （×10⁴ CNY）	0.37	10.42
承包草场面积Contracted grassland area	家庭承包草场面积The area of household contracted grassland （×10⁴ hm²）	0.19	0.46

变量 Variable	变量定义或赋值方法 Definition and assignment	平均 Mean	标准差Standard deviation （SD）
牧户受教育程度Education of herders	1=没有受过教育No education； 2=小学Primary school； 3=初中Junior high school； 4=高中或中专High school or technical secondary school； 5=大学及以上College and above	1.56	0.75
牧户从事畜牧业的时间Time of herders engaged in animal husbandry	牧户从事畜牧业的时间Time of herders engaged in animal husbandry （Month）	8.80	4.91
家庭中是否有政府工作人员Whether there are government employees in the family or not	1=有Yes； 0=没有No	0.09	0.27
家庭人口数Number of family members	家庭人口总数Number of family members	5.68	1.97
家庭是否以畜牧业为主要生计Whether the family relies on animal husbandry as its main livelihood	1=是Yes；0=否No	0.77	0.43
羊的数量The number of sheep	养殖羊的总数Total number of sheep （sheep-unit）	52.31	81.39
畜牧业纯收入Net income of animal husbandry	畜牧业纯收入Net income of animal husbandry （×10⁴ CNY）	0.37	10.42
承包草场面积Contracted grassland area	家庭承包草场面积The area of household contracted grassland （×10⁴ hm²）	0.19	0.46

变量Variable	回归系数Coefficient	标准误Standard error
牧户受教育程度Education of herders	-1.900	2.208
牧户从事畜牧业的时间Time engaged in animal husbandry	1.240*	0.626
家庭中是否有政府工作人员Whether there are government employees in the family or not	-17.612**	6.886
家庭人口数Number of family members	-1.903**	0.823
家庭是否以畜牧业为主要生计Whether the family relies on animal husbandry as its main livelihood	-18.106**	7.380
羊的数量The number of sheep	0.034*	0.019
畜牧业纯收入Net income of animal husbandry	0.136	0.144
承包草场面积Contracted grassland area	-2.480	3.378
常数项Constant term	26.062***	7.095

牧户雪灾气象指数保险支付意愿分析——以甘南牧区为例

Analysis of herders’ willingness to pay for snow disaster weather-index insurance—A case study in the Gannan Pastoral area

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Metrics

变量Variable	回归系数Coefficient	标准误Standard error
牧户受教育程度Education of herders	-1.151	1.832
牧户从事畜牧业的时间Time engaged in animal husbandry	0.989*	0.532
家庭中是否有政府工作人员Whether there are government employees in the family or not	-9.765*	5.087
家庭人口数Number of family members	-1.637**	0.701
家庭是否以畜牧业为主要生计Whether the family relies on animal husbandry as its main livelihood	-13.690**	6.219
羊的数量The number of sheep	0.029*	0.016
畜牧业纯收入Net income of animal husbandry	0.130	0.124
承包草场面积Contracted grassland area	-3.032	2.967
常数项Constant term	24.010***	5.964

[1]	李芙凝, 秦昌胜, 周雪, 唐增. 高寒草原牧区雪灾指数保险的设计——以甘南牧区为例[J]. 草业学报, 2021, 30(6): 199-204.
[2]	陈强强, 陈文娟, 马亚飞, 杨婕妤, 杨清. 社会资本对牧户参与草原生态治理意愿的影响——以甘南州黄河水源补给区为例[J]. 草业学报, 2021, 30(6): 40-53.
[3]	梁天刚,崔霞²,冯琦胜,王莺,夏文韬. 2001-2008年甘南牧区草地地上生物量与载畜量遥感动态监测[J]. 草业学报, 2009, 18(6): 12-22.