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草业学报 ›› 2009, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (2): 163-168.

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贴现因素对牧民草地承包后期放牧行为的影响分析

辛永亮,孙春宝,宋波*   

  1. 北京科技大学土木与环境工程学院环境工程系,北京 100083
  • 收稿日期:2008-07-04 出版日期:2009-04-20 发布日期:2009-04-20
  • 作者简介:辛永亮(1984-),男,山东青岛人,在读硕士。E-mail:yongliang1010@163.com

Analysis of the influence of discounting on grazing behavior in the late grassland contract stage

XIN Yong-liang, SUN Chun-bao, SONG Bo   

  1. Department of Environmental Engineering, Civil and Environmental Engineering School,
    University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
  • Received:2008-07-04 Online:2009-04-20 Published:2009-04-20

摘要: 本研究将贴现影响引入牧草生长-消费模型,针对草地承包后期牧民可能采取的几种放牧行为进行比较分析。当社会存在正贴现率时,牧民为获取最大收益,倾向于在承包期内适度放牧,在临近承包期结束时,采取最大放牧强度的放牧策略。与不考虑贴现时情况相比,此策略过度放牧开始时间有所提前,提前程度与贴现率正相关。经历20多年经济高速发展后,我国贴现率处于较高水平,因此政府应根据贴现率变化提前与牧民续签合同,防止草地大幅破坏的情况发生。

Abstract: By introducing a discount effect into a biomass growth and consumption model, comparisons and analysis could be made of the strategies herdsmen might take in the late grassland contract stage. The study showed that with a positive discount rate, herdsmen would take moderate grazing intensity in the contract but in order to have optimal economic income they would graze as heavily as they could at the end of the contract. Compared with not having a discount rate, the overgrazing starting time in this strategy is earlier and the extent is positively related to the discount rate. Having experienced rapid economic development for more than twenty years, discount rates in china are at a relatively high level. To prevent devastating overgrazing, the contract should be redesigned to vary the discount rate before the deadline with herdsmen.

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