外来入侵植物意大利苍耳在我国适生区预测

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 意大利苍耳是20世纪90年代入侵我国的检疫性杂草,近年来呈快速扩散趋势。明确其适生区对科学监测和控制该杂草意义重大。本研究采用生态位模型预测了其在我国的适生区。首先利用原产地北美洲的分布点构建GARP生态位模型预测其在全球适生区,然后利用全球已知入侵点为独立检验数据通过ROC曲线检验模型的准确性。分析显示原产地数据构建生态位模型具有很强的预测能力(AUC=0.91)。进而将该模型投影到中国,结果显示除青海、西藏、新疆天山山脉以南和内蒙古北部地区外的区域都是意大利苍耳在我国的适生区。针对于意大利苍耳在我国广阔的适生区以及繁殖能力强、种子具钩刺等易于扩散的生物学特性和多样化的扩散途径,意大利苍耳在中国即将进入一个快速扩散阶段。建议对新入侵的地区采取早期根除措施,加大对适生区内港口、机场、旅游区等极易传入区域的监测力度,以预防其再度入侵和控制其在我国进一步的扩散。

Abstract: Xanthium italicum is one of the harmful quarantine weeds in China and it has spread rapidly in China since it invaded in the 1990s. In order to monitor and control X. italicum effectively, it is necessary to predict potential survival areas in China. Its ecological niches were modeled through application of the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) on the basis of its native region (North America). The model’s accuracy was evaluated by Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve based on invaded areas in Europe, Asia, and South America. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.91, which indicated that all models had a highly predictive ability. The ecological models developed on the basis of the native occurrences were projected on the landscape of China. With the exception of Qinghai, Tibet, southern parts of Xinjiang, and northern parts of Inner Mongolia, most areas in China were potential survival areas for X. italicum. Because of X. italicum’s high dispersal ability, and diverse dispersal routes, the potential distribution areas in China are huge and it may invade more areas and spread faster in the future. To prevent further invasion and spread, an early eradication program should be adopted in the newly invaded areas. Meanwhile, the monitoring programs should be applied in potential survival areas, especially in coastal harbors, airports, and tourism areas which are highly vulnerable for X. italicum invasion.

中图分类号:

Q948.13

王瑞,万方浩. 外来入侵植物意大利苍耳在我国适生区预测[J]. 草业学报, 2010, 19(6): 222-230.

WANG Rui, WAN Fang-hao. Prediction of the potential survival area of Xanthium italicum in China[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2010, 19(6): 222-230.

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