基于MaxEnt的麦田恶性杂草节节麦的潜在分布区预测

草业学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (2): 62-70.

基于MaxEnt的麦田恶性杂草节节麦的潜在分布区预测

房锋^1,2,张朝贤¹,黄红娟¹,李燕³,陈景超¹,杨龙¹,魏守辉^1*

1.中国农业科学院植物保护研究所农业部作物有害生物综合治理重点实验室,北京 100193;
2.山东省农业科学院植物保护研究所,山东济南 250100;
3.山东省农业科学院高新技术研究中心,山东济南 250100

收稿日期:2012-03-12 出版日期:2013-02-25 发布日期:2013-04-20
通讯作者: E-mail: shwei@ippcaas.cn
作者简介:房锋(1982-),男,山东宁阳人,在读博士。E-mail:weedfang@163.com
基金资助:
“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAD19B02)和公益性行业(农业)科研专项(200903004)资助。

Potential distribution of Tausch’s goatgrass (Aegilops tauschii) in both China and the rest of the world as predicted by MaxEnt

FANG Feng^1,2, ZHANG Chao-xian¹, HUANG Hong-juan¹, LI Yan³, CHEN Jing-chao¹, YANG Long¹, WEI Shou-hui¹

1.Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management in Crops, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100193;
2. Institute of Plant Protection, Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Ji’nan 250100, China;
3.High & New Technology Research Center of Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Ji’nan 250100, China

Received:2012-03-12 Online:2013-02-25 Published:2013-04-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 节节麦是麦田恶性杂草,明确节节麦在全球及中国的潜在分布对有效控制其扩散蔓延有重要的指导意义。利用MaxEnt生态位模型对节节麦在全球及中国的潜在分布进行了预测。结果表明,西亚、中东、欧洲东南部和非洲北部地中海沿岸是节节麦在全球的主要适生区;节节麦在我国的适生区主要分布在冬小麦主产区河南、河北、山东、山西西南部、陕西关中平原、宁夏中南部、甘肃东南部、湖北、江苏和安徽北部。节节麦在全球的潜在分布区主要分布于北纬30°~45°的冬小麦主产区。随着全球气候的变化,温室气体在A1b排放情景下,到2050年,节节麦的潜在分布范围将有扩大趋势;A2a和B2a排放情景下,节节麦低风险区和中风险区则有缩减趋势,但高风险区变化不明显。

Abstract: Tausch’s goatgrass (Aegilops tauschii) is a serious weed worldwide. Determination of the potential geographical distribution of Tausch’s goatgrass is an important factor for effectively controlling the spreading of this weed. The potential distribution of Tausch’s goatgrass in China and in the rest of the world were predicted using the MaxEnt model. West Asia, the Middle-east, the Mediterranean coast of south-eastern Europe and northern Africa are the main suitable areas for growth of Tausch’s goatgrass. In China the suitable areas are mainly distributed in Henan, Hebei, Shandong, southwest of Shanxi, Guanzhong Plain of Shaanxi, the central and south of Ningxia, southeast of Gansu, north of Hubei, Jiangsu and Anhui provinces. The global potential distribution area of Tausch’s goatgrass is mainly between 30° to 45° degrees north in the latitude of the main winter wheat producing areas. As the global climate changes, the potential distribution range of Tausch’s goatgrass will vary according to different emissions scenarios. With greenhouse gases under the A1b emissions scenario, by 2050, the potential distribution of Tausch’s goatgrass will have a tendency to expand, while under A2a and B2a emissions scenarios, the low- and medium-risk areas will tend to decrease, but the high-risk areas will not change significantly.

中图分类号:

S451.22⁺1

房锋,张朝贤,黄红娟,李燕,陈景超,杨龙,魏守辉. 基于MaxEnt的麦田恶性杂草节节麦的潜在分布区预测[J]. 草业学报, 2013, 22(2): 62-70.

FANG Feng, ZHANG Chao-xian, HUANG Hong-juan, LI Yan, CHEN Jing-chao, YANG Long, WEI Shou-hui. Potential distribution of Tausch’s goatgrass (Aegilops tauschii) in both China and the rest of the world as predicted by MaxEnt[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2013, 22(2): 62-70.

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