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草业学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (4): 20-30.DOI: 10.11686/cyxb20140403

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

紫茎泽兰潜在分布对气候变化响应的研究

王翀1,林慧龙1*,何兰2,曹坳程3   

  1. 1.草地农业生态系统国家重点实验室兰州大学草地农业科技学院,甘肃兰州730020
    2.中国食品药品检定研究院,北京100050
    3.中国农业科学院植物保护研究所,北京100193
  • 收稿日期:2012-05-24 出版日期:2014-08-20 发布日期:2014-08-20
  • 通讯作者: E-mail:linhuilong@lzu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:王翀(1987-),女,甘肃白银人,在读博士。E-mail:anne_cat2008@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    公益性行业(农业)科研专项(201103027)资助

Research on responses of Eupatorium adenophorum’s potential distribution to climate change

WANG Chong1,LIN Hui-long1,HE Lan2,CAO Ao-cheng3   

  1. 1.State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-ecosystems,College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730020,China;
    2.National Institutes for Food and Drug Control,Beijing 100050,China;
    3.Institute of Plant Protection,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100193,China
  • Received:2012-05-24 Online:2014-08-20 Published:2014-08-20

摘要: 紫茎泽兰的生态适应性强,是我国外来入侵物种中危害最为严重的恶性杂草。研究紫茎泽兰的适生性特征及对全球气候变化的响应规律是制定防控策略的重要基础,为此,本研究采用了将生态位因子分析(ENFA)与最大熵模型(MaxEnt)嵌套的方法,首先通过ENFA对环境因子进行降维,利用降维后的环境因子以及当前及A1b情景的未来气候数据,根据最大熵模型(MaxEnt)预测紫茎泽兰的潜在分布,并使用ROC曲线分析对预测结果进行评价。结果显示,当前气候情景下,紫茎泽兰的分布区以云南、贵州、广西等省为主;未来A1b情景下,易入侵等级(入侵概率为0.6~1.0)的区域面积将会由当前的12.82 km2增加至2080s的21.30 km2,中心点将由当前位置向西南方向移动61 km;而其中高入侵概率等级(入侵概率为0.8~1.0)的区域面积将由当前的0.42 km2增加至2080s的0.91 km2, 中心点将由当前位置向东南方向移动178.66 km。根据当前及未来A1b气候情景下紫茎泽兰潜在分布情况,并根据不同入侵等级区域采取相应的防除治理措施,将对紫茎泽兰的综合治理具有重要指导意义。

Abstract: Eupatorium adenophorum is one of the most invasive alien species in China. It has a strong ecological adaptability,and it can seize the niche very quickly thus the native species would be posed a threat to biodiversity by being crowded out. In order to study the potential distribution of E. adenophorum and its response to climate change,also to find out the environmental factors which influence the distribution of E. adenophorum,the ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) and the maximum entropy model were combined in this study. Firstly the environmental factors dimension was reduced by ENFA; secondly together with current and future climate data the study use MaxEnt model to predict the distribution of E. adenophorum in the future. The results showed that in the A1b scenario,the main distribution areas were Yunnan,Guizhou,and Guangxi province. From now to 2080s,the area of L45 grade (the invasion probability is 0.6-1.0) was increased from 12.82 km2 of nowadays to 21.30 km2 in 2080s,and the center moved 46.62 km northwest. While the area of L5 grade (the invasion probability is 0.8-1.0) was increased from 0.42 km2 of nowadays to 0.91 km2 in 2080s,and the center moved 178.66 km northeast. According to the research of the potential distribution of E. adenophorum in the current and future,the area of different invasion grade could be controlled by appropriate measures,and it will provide an important guidance for the comprehensive management.

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