The effects of climate change on dryland wheat production under different tillage systems

Abstract

Abstract: In order to explore the influence mechanism and regulation of climate change on wheat yields, the parameters of APSIM model were firstly modified and then verified according to the data collected from field experiment. APSIM model was used to survey the effect and sensitivity of elevated CO₂ concentration and temperature on wheat yield under 3 tillage systems. The results show the relationships between wheat yield and the CO₂ concentration were quadratic parabola that shows an increased change and the yield will coincide with the diminishing return when CO₂ concentration increase. Meanwhile, the increasing effect of wheat yield of no tillage with stubble mulching (NTS) is greater than that of conventional tillage (T) and no tillage (NT). The relationships between wheat yield and temperature were quadratic parabola. Wheat yield and temperature of T and NT show a decreased change of quadratic parabola, and the contribution of temperature to the yield will coincide with the superimposed decreasing effect. Wheat yield and temperature under NTS show inflection point type change of quadratic parabola, temperature threshold is 0.94℃. Sensitivity of wheat yield to interaction of temperature and CO₂ concentration is divided to insensitivity, positive sensitivity and negative sensitivity. Sensitivity under NTS treatment changes little. In 3 tillage systems, the increasing effect of wheat yield caused by elevated CO₂ concentration can compensate for the yield reduction due to high temperature under NTS treatment, and there exists better interaction effect between CO₂ concentration and temperature. Preferably NTS can deal with the change of temperature and CO₂ concentration better, and it can reduce the negative effect of climate change.

CLC Number:

S512.1
S181

LI Guang, LI Yue, HUANG Gao-bao, LUO Zhu-zhu, WANG Qi, LIU Qiang, YAN Zhen-gang, ZHAO You-yi. The effects of climate change on dryland wheat production under different tillage systems[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2012, 21(5): 160-168.

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