草业学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (5): 1-12.DOI: 10.11686/cyxb2020200
收稿日期:
2020-05-11
修回日期:
2020-07-15
出版日期:
2021-05-20
发布日期:
2021-04-16
通讯作者:
都瓦拉
作者简介:
Corresponding author. E-mail: dwlrsgis@163.com基金资助:
Li-li HOU2(), Wa-la DU1(), Shan YIN2, Shan YU2
Received:
2020-05-11
Revised:
2020-07-15
Online:
2021-05-20
Published:
2021-04-16
Contact:
Wa-la DU
摘要:
随着全球气候变暖,草原火灾频发给牧区生境带来严重威胁,牧户生产生活行为对判断草原火灾风险具有重要意义。从牧户微观尺度出发,以东乌珠穆沁旗57个嘎查牧户为研究对象,依据自然灾害指数法,牧户调研和GIS方法,采用主成分分析法、层次分析法、加权综合评价法对牧户尺度草原火灾风险评价指标体系分析,获取东乌旗草原火灾风险等级分布图,并利用火点对风险区划精度验证。结果表明:1)东乌旗草原火灾风险评价4个一级指标的权重危险性25.85%、暴露性28.86%、脆弱性19.17%、防灾减灾能力26.12%。2)东乌旗草原火灾风险性整体呈由西到东逐渐递增的趋势,研究区绝大多数地区属于中高火险区,占比86.07%。3)研究区2001-2018年火点沿边境线分布,由南向北逐渐增多,火烧迹地面积2338.25 km2,国境线火烧频次集中在2~3次,中高火险区火点占比79.99%,风险区划精度较高。研究结果可对苏木政府制定草原火灾具体防灾减灾政策提供科学依据。
侯丽丽, 都瓦拉, 银山, 玉山. 基于牧户尺度的草原火灾风险评价——以东乌珠穆沁旗为例[J]. 草业学报, 2021, 30(5): 1-12.
Li-li HOU, Wa-la DU, Shan YIN, Shan YU. Risk assessment of grassland fires at the herder scale: The Dongwuzhumuqin Banner as an example[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2021, 30(5): 1-12.
准则层Rule layer | 标准层The standard layer | 指标类型The index type | 数据来源The data source |
---|---|---|---|
危险性Hazard | 坡度Slope | + | 遥感数据 Remote sensing data |
风速Wind speed | + | 气象数据Meteorological data | |
干雷暴数Thunderstorm number | + | 气象数据Meteorological data | |
可燃物的量Amount of fuel | + | 遥感数据 Remote sensing data | |
平均温度Mean temperature | + | 遥感数据 Remote sensing data | |
降水 Precipitation | - | 气象数据Meteorological data | |
常住人口 Long-term residents | + | 统计数据 Statistical data | |
暴露性Exposure | 房屋面积 Building area | + | 统计数据 Statistical data |
草场面积 Meadow area | + | 统计数据 Statistical data | |
家庭收入 Household income | + | 统计数据 Statistical data | |
牲畜数量 Livestock number | + | 统计数据 Statistical data | |
脆弱性Vulnerability | 老幼人口数 Young and old population | + | 统计数据 Statistical data |
牧业收入Stock raising income | + | 统计数据 Statistical data | |
畜棚圈面积 Covered fold area | + | 统计数据 Statistical data | |
幼畜数量 Number of small animals | + | 统计数据 Statistical data | |
防灾减灾能力 Emergency response and recovery ability | 道路里程 Road length | + | 遥感数据 Remote sensing data |
非牧业收入 Non-pastoral income | + | 统计数据 Statistical data | |
有效井数 Wells number | + | 统计数据 Statistical data | |
家庭劳动力 Labor force | + | 统计数据 Statistical data | |
参加医保人数 Medicare number | + | 统计数据 Statistical data | |
家庭人均收入 Per capita income | + | 统计数据 Statistical data |
表1 牧户尺度草原火灾风险评价指标体系
Table 1 Index system of grassland fire risk assessment based on herdsman
准则层Rule layer | 标准层The standard layer | 指标类型The index type | 数据来源The data source |
---|---|---|---|
危险性Hazard | 坡度Slope | + | 遥感数据 Remote sensing data |
风速Wind speed | + | 气象数据Meteorological data | |
干雷暴数Thunderstorm number | + | 气象数据Meteorological data | |
可燃物的量Amount of fuel | + | 遥感数据 Remote sensing data | |
平均温度Mean temperature | + | 遥感数据 Remote sensing data | |
降水 Precipitation | - | 气象数据Meteorological data | |
常住人口 Long-term residents | + | 统计数据 Statistical data | |
暴露性Exposure | 房屋面积 Building area | + | 统计数据 Statistical data |
草场面积 Meadow area | + | 统计数据 Statistical data | |
家庭收入 Household income | + | 统计数据 Statistical data | |
牲畜数量 Livestock number | + | 统计数据 Statistical data | |
脆弱性Vulnerability | 老幼人口数 Young and old population | + | 统计数据 Statistical data |
牧业收入Stock raising income | + | 统计数据 Statistical data | |
畜棚圈面积 Covered fold area | + | 统计数据 Statistical data | |
幼畜数量 Number of small animals | + | 统计数据 Statistical data | |
防灾减灾能力 Emergency response and recovery ability | 道路里程 Road length | + | 遥感数据 Remote sensing data |
非牧业收入 Non-pastoral income | + | 统计数据 Statistical data | |
有效井数 Wells number | + | 统计数据 Statistical data | |
家庭劳动力 Labor force | + | 统计数据 Statistical data | |
参加医保人数 Medicare number | + | 统计数据 Statistical data | |
家庭人均收入 Per capita income | + | 统计数据 Statistical data |
一级指标 First class index | 二级指标 Second class index | 主成分分析权重 Principal component analysis weight | 专家打分法权重 Expert scoring weight | 组合权重 The combination weight |
---|---|---|---|---|
危险性Hazard | 坡度Slope | 0.0306 | 0.0210 | 0.0258 |
风速Wind speed | 0.0542 | 0.0594 | 0.0568 | |
干雷暴数Thunderstorm number | 0.0606 | 0.0702 | 0.0654 | |
可燃物的量Amount of fuel | 0.0053 | 0.0104 | 0.0078 | |
平均温度Mean temperature | 0.0509 | 0.0387 | 0.0448 | |
降水 Precipitation | 0.0487 | 0.0283 | 0.0385 | |
常住人口 Long-term residents | 0.0243 | 0.0145 | 0.0194 | |
暴露性Exposure | 房屋面积 Building Area | 0.0619 | 0.0704 | 0.0662 |
草场面积 Meadow area | 0.0525 | 0.0704 | 0.0615 | |
家庭收入 Household income | 0.0580 | 0.0838 | 0.0709 | |
牲畜数量 Livestock number | 0.0617 | 0.1185 | 0.0901 | |
脆弱性Vulnerability | 老幼人口数 Young and old population | 0.0283 | 0.0170 | 0.0227 |
牧业收入Stock raising income | 0.0576 | 0.0510 | 0.0543 | |
畜棚圈面积 Covered fold area | 0.0608 | 0.0607 | 0.0608 | |
幼畜数量 Number of small animals | 0.0651 | 0.0429 | 0.0540 | |
防灾减灾能力 Emergency response and recovery ability | 道路里程 Road length | 0.0804 | 0.0917 | 0.0861 |
非牧业收入 Non-pastoral income | 0.0162 | 0.0164 | 0.0163 | |
有效井数 Wells number | 0.0697 | 0.0420 | 0.0558 | |
家庭劳动力 Labor force | 0.0120 | 0.0156 | 0.0138 | |
参加医保人数 Medicare number | 0.0459 | 0.0297 | 0.0378 | |
家庭人均收入 Per capita income | 0.0552 | 0.0472 | 0.0512 |
表2 草原火灾风险评价指标权重
Table 2 Weights of grassland fire risk assessment indicators
一级指标 First class index | 二级指标 Second class index | 主成分分析权重 Principal component analysis weight | 专家打分法权重 Expert scoring weight | 组合权重 The combination weight |
---|---|---|---|---|
危险性Hazard | 坡度Slope | 0.0306 | 0.0210 | 0.0258 |
风速Wind speed | 0.0542 | 0.0594 | 0.0568 | |
干雷暴数Thunderstorm number | 0.0606 | 0.0702 | 0.0654 | |
可燃物的量Amount of fuel | 0.0053 | 0.0104 | 0.0078 | |
平均温度Mean temperature | 0.0509 | 0.0387 | 0.0448 | |
降水 Precipitation | 0.0487 | 0.0283 | 0.0385 | |
常住人口 Long-term residents | 0.0243 | 0.0145 | 0.0194 | |
暴露性Exposure | 房屋面积 Building Area | 0.0619 | 0.0704 | 0.0662 |
草场面积 Meadow area | 0.0525 | 0.0704 | 0.0615 | |
家庭收入 Household income | 0.0580 | 0.0838 | 0.0709 | |
牲畜数量 Livestock number | 0.0617 | 0.1185 | 0.0901 | |
脆弱性Vulnerability | 老幼人口数 Young and old population | 0.0283 | 0.0170 | 0.0227 |
牧业收入Stock raising income | 0.0576 | 0.0510 | 0.0543 | |
畜棚圈面积 Covered fold area | 0.0608 | 0.0607 | 0.0608 | |
幼畜数量 Number of small animals | 0.0651 | 0.0429 | 0.0540 | |
防灾减灾能力 Emergency response and recovery ability | 道路里程 Road length | 0.0804 | 0.0917 | 0.0861 |
非牧业收入 Non-pastoral income | 0.0162 | 0.0164 | 0.0163 | |
有效井数 Wells number | 0.0697 | 0.0420 | 0.0558 | |
家庭劳动力 Labor force | 0.0120 | 0.0156 | 0.0138 | |
参加医保人数 Medicare number | 0.0459 | 0.0297 | 0.0378 | |
家庭人均收入 Per capita income | 0.0552 | 0.0472 | 0.0512 |
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