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草业学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (5): 1-12.DOI: 10.11686/cyxb2020200

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于牧户尺度的草原火灾风险评价——以东乌珠穆沁旗为例

侯丽丽2(), 都瓦拉1(), 银山2, 玉山2   

  1. 1.中国农业科学院草原研究所,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010010
    2.内蒙古师范大学地理科学学院,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010022
  • 收稿日期:2020-05-11 修回日期:2020-07-15 出版日期:2021-05-20 发布日期:2021-04-16
  • 通讯作者: 都瓦拉
  • 作者简介:Corresponding author. E-mail: dwlrsgis@163.com
    侯丽丽(1995-),女,山西孝义人,在读硕士。E-mail: 245709243@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    CAAS-ASTIP-IGR2015-0407,内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2017MS0409);国家自然科学基金项目(41761101)

Risk assessment of grassland fires at the herder scale: The Dongwuzhumuqin Banner as an example

Li-li HOU2(), Wa-la DU1(), Shan YIN2, Shan YU2   

  1. 1.Grassland Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Hohhot 010010,China
    2.College of Geography,Inner Mongolia Normal University,Hohhot 010022,China
  • Received:2020-05-11 Revised:2020-07-15 Online:2021-05-20 Published:2021-04-16
  • Contact: Wa-la DU

摘要:

随着全球气候变暖,草原火灾频发给牧区生境带来严重威胁,牧户生产生活行为对判断草原火灾风险具有重要意义。从牧户微观尺度出发,以东乌珠穆沁旗57个嘎查牧户为研究对象,依据自然灾害指数法,牧户调研和GIS方法,采用主成分分析法、层次分析法、加权综合评价法对牧户尺度草原火灾风险评价指标体系分析,获取东乌旗草原火灾风险等级分布图,并利用火点对风险区划精度验证。结果表明:1)东乌旗草原火灾风险评价4个一级指标的权重危险性25.85%、暴露性28.86%、脆弱性19.17%、防灾减灾能力26.12%。2)东乌旗草原火灾风险性整体呈由西到东逐渐递增的趋势,研究区绝大多数地区属于中高火险区,占比86.07%。3)研究区2001-2018年火点沿边境线分布,由南向北逐渐增多,火烧迹地面积2338.25 km2,国境线火烧频次集中在2~3次,中高火险区火点占比79.99%,风险区划精度较高。研究结果可对苏木政府制定草原火灾具体防灾减灾政策提供科学依据。

关键词: 牧户尺度, 草原火灾, 风险评价, 东乌珠穆沁旗

Abstract:

With global warming, the frequent occurrence of grassland fires poses a serious threat to the environment in pastoral areas. The behavior of pastoral householders is of great significance for judging the risks of grassland fires. This study represents an analysis of fire risk on the herder micro-scale, with herders from 57 villages in Dongwuzhumuqin Banner as the research object. We calculated the natural disaster index on the basis of a survey of herders and (geographic information system, GIS) analyses. Then, we used principal component analysis, analytic hierarchy processes, and weighted multivariate analysis methods to analyze the grassland fire risk assessment index system at the herder scale. We generated a distribution map of grassland fire risk levels in the Dongwuzhumuqin Banner, and verified the accuracy of the risk assessment zoning map using fire spots. The main results were as follows: 1) The weights of the four first-level grassland fire risk assessment indicators in the Dongwuzhumuqin Banner were as follows: 25.85% dangerous, 28.86% exposed, 19.17% vulnerable, and 26.12% disaster prevention and reduction capacity. 2) The overall risk of grassland fires in the Dongwuzhumuqin Banner showed an increasing trend from west to east. The vast majority (86.07%) of the research area was in medium-risk and high-risk fire areas. 3) The fire spots in the study area were distributed along the border line from 2001 to 2018, and increased in abundance from south to north. The burned area was 2338.25 km2. The frequency of fires on the national border line was concentrated between two and three times. The proportion of fire spots in the middle and high-risk fire areas was 79.99%. Our analyses indicate that the accuracy of these risk zoning research results is relatively high. The results of this study provide a scientific basis for local government to formulate specific disaster prevention and mitigation policies for grassland fires.

Key words: herder scale, grassland fire, risk assessment, Dongwuzhumuqin Banner