Responses of aboveground net primary productivity of the typical steppe to climate change-a simulation based on the CENTURY Model

doi:10.11686/cyxb2016044

Abstract

Abstract: The CENTURY model was used to simulate the dynamic changes in aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in the typical steppe of Inner Mongolia, based on meteorological data from 1953 to 2014 and measured data from 1998 to 2013. The overall aim was to analyze the correlation between dynamic changes in ANPP and meteorological factors. The main findings were as follows: 1) the trends in the measured values were highly consistent with those in the simulated values of ANPP at the research site from 1998 to 2013 (Pearson’s correlation coefficient, 0.79; root-mean-square error, 25.92 g/m²). These results indicated that the CENTURY model has good applicability in the typical steppe in Xilinhaote, Inner Mongolia. 2) The sensitivity analysis indicated that the main parameters of the model are soil physicochemical properties, the potential growth coefficient of grassland plants, and the most suitable and the highest temperature for plant growth at the research site. The determination of these parameters affected the accuracy of the model simulation results. 3) From 1953 to 2014, the temperature in Xilinhaote, Inner Mongolia, significantly increased (P<0.01) because of the significant rise in the annual average minimum temperature. The precipitation showed significant interannual fluctuations (variable coefficient, 30.2%). 4) The simulated ANPP at the research site showed a declining trend from 1953 to 2014, but the trend was not significant (P>0.05). Correlation analyses showed that precipitation was the most important factor affecting the changes in ANPP (correlation coefficient between annual precipitation and ANPP=0.959; P<0.01). Temperature was weakly correlated with ANPP.

WANG Song, GENG Yuan-Bo, MU Yue. Responses of aboveground net primary productivity of the typical steppe to climate change-a simulation based on the CENTURY Model[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2016, 25(12): 4-13.

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