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Acta Prataculturae Sinica ›› 2017, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (2): 10-20.DOI: 10.11686/cyxb2016108

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Comprehensive risk assessment of snow disasters in Qinghai Province

MA Xiao-Fang, HUANG Xiao-Dong*, DENG Jie, WANG Yun-Long, LIANG Tian-Gang   

  1. College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-ecosystems, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730020, China
  • Received:2016-03-09 Online:2017-02-20 Published:2017-02-20

Abstract: We collected data on 19 factors, including social, economic, and meteorological factors, leading to snow disasters in Qinghai Province. A combination of subjective and objective methods was used to filter these data. Then, logistic regression models were used to further screen the initial factors and identify five risk assessment factors (per capita gross domestic product, annual average temperature, number of snow-covered days, maximum snow depth, and slope). These data were analyzed using ArcGIS to construct a snow disaster average risk zoning map from 2001-2007 for the Qinghai region, to illustrate the spatial distribution of different snow disaster levels. The results of the subjective and objective analyses indicated that the key factors leading to snow disasters were not only natural and meteorological factors, but also social economic factors. The average risk distribution of snow disasters, and risk factors (maximum snow depth, slope, number of snow-covered days) showed consistent trends, in contrast to the trends in the distribution of annual mean temperature and per capita gross domestic product. The risk of snow disasters was higher in the south and lower in the north of Qinghai Province. The high risk areas were mainly distributed in the south region of Qinghai Province including Chengduo, Yushu, Xiangqian, Dari, Gande, and Maqin, while the low-risk areas included the Qaidam Basin in the northwest and the eastern agricultural region. A high risk of snow disasters was associated with topography and geomorphology. Mountainous areas above 4000 m (including the Qilian, Kunlun, Tanggula, Bayankala, and Anyemaqen mountains) were high-risk areas for snow disasters in Qinghai Province.