Abstract: In this study, we analyzed the driving forces underlying changes in grassland coverage on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. For these analyses, we used statistical data collected from 2000 to 2016 from 573 herdsmen’s pastures scattered across five provinces on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. These data comprised remote sensing, meteorological, socio-economic, and other data. We used an empirical model to calculate the vegetation coverage of herdsmen’s pastures to analyze the degree of grassland degradation, the trends in various factors, and the key drivers of grassland change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau since the beginning of the 21st century. The results indicate that mild degeneration is dominant in the study area, with the area of degraded pasture accounting for 69% of the total area. The analyses indicated that the changes in grassland vegetation coverage are the result of interactions between natural and socio-economic factors: increased temperature and rainfall from climate change have positively affected the growth of grassland vegetation; whereas increases in economic development and population density have led, and will continue to lead, to decreases in grassland vegetation coverage. Furthermore, grassland vegetation coverage is continuing to decrease as the distance between neighboring cities decreases. In terms of the mechanisms of change, there is a significant negative correlation between the livestock carrying capacity of grassland and vegetation coverage, and overgrazing is still the key driver of grassland change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Key words: Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, grassland change, NDVI, driving force