[1] Ashok K M, Vijay P S. A review of drought concepts. Journal of Hydrology, 2010, 391(1-2): 202-216. [2] Houghton J T, Ding Y. The scientific basis//IPCC. Climate Change 2001: Summary for Policy Maker and Technical Summary of the Working Group I Report[M]. London: Cambridge University Press, 2001: 98. [3] IPCC. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovern-mental Panel on Climate Change[M]. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, 2013. [4] IPCC. Summary for policymakers. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Specoal Report on Managing the Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation[M]. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, 2011. [5] The Group of ADB Technical Assistance to China About Strategic Research on Risk Management on Drought Disaster. Strategic Research on Risk Management on Drought Disaster in China[M]. Beijing: China Waterpower Press, 2011: 1-3. [6] Huang X Y, Wang X P, Wang J S, et al . Spatial and temporal characteristics of the consecutive dry days in recent 53 years in Mainland China. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2014, 32(3): 326-333. [7] Tu C W, Huang S S. The fluctuation of the monsoon region boundary in China. Acta Meteorological Sinica, 1944, 18: 1-20. [8] Wang Y, Wang J S, Yao Y B, et al . Dynamic monitoring of drought based on temperature vegetation dryness index in Guangdong province. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2014, 23(2): 98-107. [9] Sun C M, Liu T, Tian T, et al . Remote sensing estimation and application of grassland NPP based on MODIS data in southern China. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2013, 22(5): 11-17. [10] Yin H, Li Y H. Summary of advance on drought study in southwest China. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2013, 31(1): 182-193. [11] UGS. Quantitative risk assessment for slopes and landslides-the state of the art. In: Cruden D, Fell R. Landslide Risk Assessment[M]. Rotterdam: A A Balkema, 1997. [12] Huang C F. Risk Assessment of Natural Disaster Theory and Practice[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2005. [13] Pan D M, Wang J G. Risk assessment of summer drought in Altay area of Xinjiang. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2012, 30(2): 188-191. [14] Xiao M Z, Zhang Q, Chen X H. Spatial-temporal patterns of drought risk across the Pearl River Basin. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(1): 83-92. [15] Cao Y Q, Li X Y, Ma J, et al . Agricultural drought risk evaluation in Dalian based on the variable fuzzy method. Resources Science, 2011, 33(5): 983-988. [16] Kang X Y, Li C Q, Dai L Q. Risk assessment of drought for winter wheat production in Hebei province. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2012, 20(6): 232-237. [17] Sheng Q L, Xu G, Wang X C. Risk assessment of midsummer drought based on GIS in Chongqing city. Journal of Sichuan Normal University (Natural Science), 2010, 33(3): 388-392. [18] Li Y, Yang X G, Wang W F, et al . Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change. Ⅰ. Spatiotemporal change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in south China. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2010, 21(10): 2605-2614. [19] Xu X C, Ge Q S, Zheng J Y, et al . Drought risk assessment on regional agriculture: a case in southwest China. Progress in Geography, 2011, 30(7): 883-890. [20] Tian S J, Yang S M, Kong F L, et al . Screening in southwest China of drought-resistant varieties of maize at the seedling stage. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2014, 23(1): 50-57. [21] Guangdong Statistical Bureau. Guangdong Statistical Yearbook: 2013[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2013. [22] Guangxi Statistical Bureau. Statistical Yearbook of Guangxi: 2013[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2013. [23] Guizhou Statistical Bureau. Guizhou Statistical Yearbook: 2013[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2013. [24] Yunnan Statistical Bureau. Yunnan Statistical Yearbook: 2013[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2013. [25] Sichuan Statistical Bureau. Sichuan Statistical Yearbook: 2013[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2013. [26] Chongqing Statistical Bureau. Chongqing Statistical Yearbook: 2013[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2013. [27] Zhang Q, Han L Y, Zhang L Y, et al . Analysis on the character and management strategy of drought disaster and risk under the climatic warming. Advances in Earth Science, 2014, 29(1): 80-91. [28] Heim Jr R R. A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 2002, 83(8): 1149-1165. [29] Zou X K, Ren G Y, Zhang Q. Droughts variations in China based on a compound index of meteorological drought. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2010, 15(4): 371-378. [30] Bao Y X, Meng C L, Shen S H, et al . Temporal and spatial patterns of droughts for recent 50 years in Jiangsu based on meteorological drought composite index. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(5): 599-608. [31] Zhang J, Liang S B, Xu X G, et al . Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of droughts for recent 50 years in Hebei province based on meteorological drought composite index. Resources Science, 2012, 34(6): 1089-1094. [32] GB/T 20481-2006. Meteorological Drought Grade[M]. Beijing: China Standard Press, 2007: 1-7. [33] National Climate Center. China Climate Impact Assessment (2008)[M]. Beijing: Meteorological Press, 2009. [34] Li M J, Chen G H, Chen Y T. Study on tarbet standardization method of comprehensive evaluation. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2004, 12(10): 45-47. [35] Zou X K, Zhang Q. Preliminary studies on variations in droughts over China during past 50 years. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2008, 19(6): 679-687. [36] Liu X M, Li J, Lü Z H, et al . Dynamic changes of composite drought index in Liaoning province in recent 50 years. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2009, 28(5): 938-942. [37] Saaty T L. What is the Analytic Hierarchy Process[M]. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer, 1988: 109-121. [5] 亚行支援中国干旱管理战略研究课题组. 中国干旱灾害风险管理战略研究[M]. 北京: 中国水利水电出版社, 2011: 1-3. [6] 黄小燕, 王小平, 王劲松, 等. 中国大陆1960-2012年持续干旱日数的时空变化特征. 干旱气象, 2014, 32(3): 326-333. [7] 涂长望, 黄士松. 中国夏季风之进退. 气象学报, 1944, 18: 1-20. [8] 王莺, 王劲松, 姚玉璧, 等. 基于温度植被干旱指数的广东省旱情动态监测. 草业学报, 2014, 23(2): 98-107. [9] 孙成明, 刘涛, 田婷, 等. 基于MODIS的南方草地NPP遥感估算与应用. 草业学报, 2013, 22(5): 11-17. [10] 尹晗, 李耀辉.我国西南干旱研究最新进展综述. 干旱气象, 2013, 31(1): 182-193. [12] 黄崇福. 自然灾害风险评价: 理论与实践[M]. 北京: 科学出版社,2005. [13] 潘冬梅, 王建刚. 新疆阿勒泰地区夏旱风险评估分析. 干旱气象, 2012, 30(2): 188-191. [14] 肖名忠, 张强, 陈晓宏. 基于多变量概率分析的珠江流域干旱特征研究. 地理学报,2012, 67(1): 83-92. [15] 曹永强, 李香云, 马静, 等. 基于可变模糊算法的大连市农业干旱风险评价. 资源科学, 2011, 33(5): 983-988. [16] 康西言, 李春强, 代立芹. 河北省冬小麦生产干旱风险分析. 干旱地区农业研究, 2012, 20(6): 232-237. [17] 盛巧玲, 徐刚, 王新才. 基于GIS的重庆市伏旱风险性分析. 四川师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2010, 33(3): 388-392. [18] 李勇, 杨晓光, 王文峰, 等. 气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化Ⅰ. 华南地区农业气候资源时空变化特征. 应用生态学报, 2010, 21(10): 2605-2614. [19] 徐新创, 葛全胜, 郑景云, 等. 区域农业干旱风险评估研究——以中国西南地区为例. 地理科学进展, 2011, 30(7): 883-890. [20] 田山君, 杨世民, 孔凡磊, 等. 西南地区玉米苗期抗旱品种筛选. 草业学报, 2014, 23(1): 50-57. [21] 广东省统计局. 广东统计年鉴: 2013[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2013. [22] 广西壮族自治区统计局. 广西统计年鉴: 2013[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2013. [23] 贵州省统计局. 贵州统计年鉴: 2013[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2013. [24] 云南省统计局. 云南统计年鉴: 2013[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2013. [25] 四川省统计局. 四川统计年鉴: 2013[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2013. [26] 重庆市统计局. 重庆统计年鉴: 2013[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2013. [27] 张强, 韩兰英, 张立阳, 等. 论气候变暖背景下干旱和干旱灾害风险特征与管理策略. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(1): 80-91. [29] 邹旭恺, 任国玉, 张强. 基于综合气象干旱指数的中国干旱变化趋势研究. 气候与环境研究, 2010, 15(4): 371-378. [30] 包云轩, 孟翠丽, 申双和, 等. 基于 CI 指数的江苏省近50年干旱时空分布规律. 地理学报, 2011, 66(5): 599-608. [31] 张婧, 梁树柏, 许晓光, 等. 基于 CI 指数的河北省近50年干旱时空分布特征. 资源科学, 2012, 34(6): 1089-1094. [32] GB/T 20481-2006. 气象干旱等级[M]. 北京: 中国标准出版社, 2007: 1-7. [33] 中国气象局国家气候中心. 全国气候影响评价(2008)[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2009. [34] 李美娟, 陈国宏, 陈衍泰. 综合评价中指标标准化方法研究. 中国管理科学, 2004, 12(10): 45-47. [35] 邹旭恺, 张强. 近半个世纪我国干旱变化的初步研究. 应用气象学报, 2008, 19(6): 679-687. [36] 刘晓梅, 李晶, 吕志红, 等. 近50年辽宁省干旱综合指数的动态变化. 生态学杂志, 2009, 28(5): 938-942. |