Prediction of the potential survival area of Xanthium italicum in China

Abstract

Abstract: Xanthium italicum is one of the harmful quarantine weeds in China and it has spread rapidly in China since it invaded in the 1990s. In order to monitor and control X. italicum effectively, it is necessary to predict potential survival areas in China. Its ecological niches were modeled through application of the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) on the basis of its native region (North America). The model’s accuracy was evaluated by Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve based on invaded areas in Europe, Asia, and South America. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.91, which indicated that all models had a highly predictive ability. The ecological models developed on the basis of the native occurrences were projected on the landscape of China. With the exception of Qinghai, Tibet, southern parts of Xinjiang, and northern parts of Inner Mongolia, most areas in China were potential survival areas for X. italicum. Because of X. italicum’s high dispersal ability, and diverse dispersal routes, the potential distribution areas in China are huge and it may invade more areas and spread faster in the future. To prevent further invasion and spread, an early eradication program should be adopted in the newly invaded areas. Meanwhile, the monitoring programs should be applied in potential survival areas, especially in coastal harbors, airports, and tourism areas which are highly vulnerable for X. italicum invasion.

CLC Number:

Q948.13

WANG Rui, WAN Fang-hao. Prediction of the potential survival area of Xanthium italicum in China[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2010, 19(6): 222-230.

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