Potential distribution patterns of Stipa bungeana in China and the major factors influencing distribution

doi:10.11686/cyxb2018368

Abstract

Abstract: Stipa bungeana is a dominant species of typical grassland in the north of China. In this study, we project its potential distribution patterns under current and future climate scenarios using the Maximum Entropy Model, and we identify the major factors influencing the distribution patterns. Initial testing of the model indicated results were reliable. In current climate scenarios, there were 5 highly suitable areas for S. bungeana: the Loess Plateau region, the Tai-Yimeng mountain region, the Hengduan mountains, the southern Tibet valley and the Tianshan mountain area. Under climate scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 (RCP denotes 'representative concentration pathway') in 2070, the highly suitable areas for S. bungeana would decreased. The results from a jackknife test showed that terrain roughness index, September precipitation, SAGA-GIS topographic wetness, February maximum temperature, December precipitation and December average temperature of December were major environmental variables affecting S. bungeana distribution patterns. These results provide a theoretical basis for the sustainable management of typical grassland in China under climate change.

Key words: Stipa bungeana, species distribution models (SDMs), maximum entropy model (MaxEnt), environmental variables, habitat suitability

WANG Bai-zhu, ZHU Yuan-jun, LIU Yan-shu, MA Feng-yun, ZHANG Xiao, SHI Zhong-jie, YANG Xiao-hui. Potential distribution patterns of Stipa bungeana in China and the major factors influencing distribution[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2019, 28(7): 3-13.

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