Research on responses of Eupatorium adenophorum’s potential distribution to climate change

doi:10.11686/cyxb20140403

Abstract

Abstract: Eupatorium adenophorum is one of the most invasive alien species in China. It has a strong ecological adaptability,and it can seize the niche very quickly thus the native species would be posed a threat to biodiversity by being crowded out. In order to study the potential distribution of E. adenophorum and its response to climate change,also to find out the environmental factors which influence the distribution of E. adenophorum,the ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) and the maximum entropy model were combined in this study. Firstly the environmental factors dimension was reduced by ENFA; secondly together with current and future climate data the study use MaxEnt model to predict the distribution of E. adenophorum in the future. The results showed that in the A1b scenario,the main distribution areas were Yunnan,Guizhou,and Guangxi province. From now to 2080s,the area of L₄₅ grade (the invasion probability is 0.6-1.0) was increased from 12.82 km² of nowadays to 21.30 km² in 2080s,and the center moved 46.62 km northwest. While the area of L₅ grade (the invasion probability is 0.8-1.0) was increased from 0.42 km² of nowadays to 0.91 km² in 2080s,and the center moved 178.66 km northeast. According to the research of the potential distribution of E. adenophorum in the current and future,the area of different invasion grade could be controlled by appropriate measures,and it will provide an important guidance for the comprehensive management.

CLC Number:

S812.29

WANG Chong,LIN Hui-long,HE Lan,CAO Ao-cheng. Research on responses of Eupatorium adenophorum’s potential distribution to climate change[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2014, 23(4): 20-30.

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