Variations in vegetation cover and its relationship with climate change and human activities in Mongolia during the period 1982-2015

doi:10.11686/cyxb2020311

Abstract

Abstract:

Dynamics of vegetation change on different spatial and temporal scales in Mongolia were analysed for the period from 1982 to 2015， based on GIMMS NDVI3g data （global inventory monitoring and modeling system normalized difference vegetation index-3rd generation）， climate data， and data on vegetation type from 1982 to 2015. Spatial patterns， trends of change in those patterns， and the main reasons for differences in vegetation type were examined using trend analysis， partial correlation analysis and residual analysis. The average NDVI in Mongolia in the growing season increased gradually from the south to the north across Mongolia over the 34-year period， showed significant latitudinal differences， and decreased as the altitude increased. In the growing season， the NDVI displayed characteristic features in particular time periods， notably a significant increase between 1982 and 1994 and between 2007 and 2015， and a significant decrease between 1994 and 2007. Across the whole of Mongolia， linear regression model indicated an increasing trend in the values of the NDVI during the growing season at the rate of 0.0005 NDVI per year， and changes in the index were closely related to increasing precipitation， with a partial correlation coefficient of 0.74. In the case of spatial distribution， areas with significant increase in vegetation were distributed mainly in the Great Lakes Region in the west， the Hangayn Mountains， the Gobi Altai Mountains， and the northern forest areas. The responses of vegetation to climatic factors varied with the season and the region. On the whole， the NDVI increased in three seasons， and the fluctuation in the NDVI in summer was consistent with that in the growth season， and the fluctuation in the NDVI in summer was consistent with that in the growth season， which was controlled mainly by precipitation， because summer contributes the most to annual productivity. The effect of temperature on the NDVI was marked in spring and autumn. Residual analysis showed that human activities has a major impact on changes in the NDVI， especially in areas with high population density （western alpine areas and central grassland areas of Mongolia）， the decline in the NDVI is obviously caused by human activities.

Key words: Mongolia, normalized difference vegetation index, climate factor, human activities, vegetation type

Jia-meng DU, Gang BAO, Si-qin TONG, Xiao-jun HUANG, Wendurina, Meili, Yu-hai BAO. Variations in vegetation cover and its relationship with climate change and human activities in Mongolia during the period 1982-2015[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2021, 30(2): 1-13.

Figures/Tables 12

Fig.1 Spatial distribution pattern of elevation (a), temperature (b), precipitation (c) and vegetation type (d) in Mongolia

Fig.2 Spatial distribution pattern of mean growing season NDVI in Mongolia from 1982 to 2015

Fig.3 Variations of growing season NDVI along latitude (a-c) and altitude (d) gradients in Mongolia from 1982 to 2015

Fig.4 Interannual variation of NDVI, precipitation and temperature in growing season of Mongolia from 1982 to 2015

Table 1 Area percentage of NDVI change trend in Mongolia during different periods （%）

变化类型 Type of change	年Year
变化类型 Type of change	1982-2015	1982-1994	1994-2007	2007-2015
无显著增加 Insignificant increase	33.8	65.3	17.9	51.4
显著增加 Significant increase	32.8	22.8	1.7	26.8
显著减小 Significant decrease	8.9	0.5	22.9	2.2
无显著减小 Insignificant decrease	24.5	11.4	57.5	19.6

Fig.5 Spatial distribution of growing season NDVI change trend in Mongolia from 1982 to 2015 (a), 1982 to 1994 (b), 1994 to 2007 (c) and 2007 to 2015 (d)

Fig.6 Partial correlation between growing season NDVI and precipitation (a), temperature (b) and the difference between the squares of the two partial correlation coefficients (c) in Mongolia from 1982 to 2015

Fig.7 The interannual changes of NDVI, precipitation and temperature in spring (a), summer (b), autumn (c) and the partial correlation between NDVI and climate factors in different seasons (d) from 1982 to 2015 in Mongolia

Fig.8 Spatial distribution of partial correlation between NDVI and precipitation and temperature in various seasons in Mongolia from 1982 to 2015

Fig.9 Partial correlations between NDVI of different vegetation types with temperature and precipitation

Fig.10 Spatial distribution of NDVI residual variation trend (a) and its significance (b) in Mongolia

Fig.11 Trends of livestock quantity and population in Mongolia

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