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草业学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (3): 276-281.DOI: 10.11686/cyxb20140333

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

马铃薯坏疽病菌在中国的适生区预测及其风险性评估

姜红霞1,2,杨成德3,蒲崇建2,陈秀蓉3,*,尚勋武1,*   

  1. 1.甘肃农业大学农学院,甘肃 兰州 730070;
    2.甘肃省植保植检站,甘肃 兰州 730020;
    3.甘肃农业大学草业学院 草业生态系统教育部重点实验室 甘肃省草业工程实验室 中-美草地畜牧业可持续发展研究中心,甘肃 兰州 730070
  • 收稿日期:2013-12-30 出版日期:2014-06-20 发布日期:2014-06-20
  • 通讯作者: E-mail:chenxiurong@gsau.edu.cn,shangxunwu@163.com
  • 作者简介:姜红霞(1976-),女,甘肃武威人,农艺师,在读博士。E-mail:jianghx1913@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    甘肃省农牧厅农业科技创新项目资助

Prediction of potential distributions and risk analysis of Phoma foveata in China

JIANG Hong-xia1,2,YANG Cheng-de3,PU Chong-jian2,CHEN Xiu-rong3,SHANG Xun-wu1   

  1. 1.College of Agronomy, Gansu Agricultral University, Lanzhou 730070, China;
    2.The Plant Protection and Quarantine Station of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730020, China;
    3.Key Laboratory of Grassland Ecosystem, Ministry of Education, College of Grassland, Gansu Agricultural University, Pratacultural Engineering Laboratory of Gansu Province, Sino-U.S. Center for Grazingland Ecosystem Sustainability, Lanzhou 730070, China
  • Received:2013-12-30 Online:2014-06-20 Published:2014-06-20

摘要: 采用马铃薯坏疽病菌已知分布点和中国14个环境地理变量图层,运用GARP生态位模型结合GIS空间分析模块,对该病原菌在中国的适生区和风险性进行了预测,结果表明,其在甘肃、云南、贵州、四川、新疆、宁夏、江苏、安徽、湖北和湖南等省有较大面积的适生区;在内蒙古、陕西、山西、河南、河北、山东、北京、辽宁、吉林及黑龙江等省市有大面积的适生区,其综合风险值为0.792,具有风险性,需重点监测。本研究为监测和防止马铃薯坏疽病的入侵提供了科学依据。

Abstract: The gangrene (Phoma foveata), which was a important disease in storage period of potato tubers, can cause the rotten potato rate more than 30% when the disease seriously occurred . In order to investigate the risk and suitable area of this fungus in China, Desktop GARP (the Genetic algorithm for Rule-set Prediction, GARP) and ArcGIS models were applied to predict potential geographic distribution based on the data about current distribution of P. foveata in world and 14 environmental and geological covariates in China. The results showed that P. foveata survive in part of the following 11 provinces including Gansu, Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Xinjiang, Ningxia, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei and Hunan. And it could also occur in most area of 10 Provinces including Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Shandong, Beijing, Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang. Comprehensive risk value of P. foveata was 0.792, which indicated that P. foveata will be a risk microorganism in China and need importantly monitor.

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