关键词: 食物安全, 畜产食品贸易, 进口依赖性风险, 草地农业

Abstract: The protection of China’s livestock product supply security to protect China’s food security is an important objective for China and ‘moderate import’ levels is one of the important ways of protect the supply security of livestock products in China. To define ‘moderate imports’ we need to analysis the import relevant risks of livestock products. Based on the import dependency evaluation model, we studied the import dependence of pork, chicken, mutton, beef and fresh milk. We found that five kinds of livestock products have import dependency risk. Pork risk comes from the United States, Germany, Denmark, Spain and Canada; risk with chicken comes from the United States, Brazil, Argentina and Poland; lamb risk comes from Australia, New Zealand and Uruguay; beef risk comes from Uruguay, Australia, New Zealand, Argentina and Canada; fresh milk risk comes from Germany, France, New Zealand and Australia. In order to reduce the risk of import dependency China, in the short-term, should develop livestock products import market strategy and focus on importing forage instead of imported livestock products; longer-term China should, under the premise of guaranteeing ‘rations security’, adjust agricultural industry structures, vigorously develop grassland agriculture and reduce dependence on the international market.

Key words: food security, import of livestock products, import dependency risk, grassland agriculture