Prediction of potential distributions and risk analysis of Phoma foveata in China

doi:10.11686/cyxb20140333

Abstract

Abstract: The gangrene (Phoma foveata), which was a important disease in storage period of potato tubers, can cause the rotten potato rate more than 30% when the disease seriously occurred . In order to investigate the risk and suitable area of this fungus in China, Desktop GARP (the Genetic algorithm for Rule-set Prediction, GARP) and ArcGIS models were applied to predict potential geographic distribution based on the data about current distribution of P. foveata in world and 14 environmental and geological covariates in China. The results showed that P. foveata survive in part of the following 11 provinces including Gansu, Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Xinjiang, Ningxia, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei and Hunan. And it could also occur in most area of 10 Provinces including Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Shandong, Beijing, Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang. Comprehensive risk value of P. foveata was 0.792, which indicated that P. foveata will be a risk microorganism in China and need importantly monitor.

CLC Number:

S435.32

JIANG Hong-xia,YANG Cheng-de,PU Chong-jian,CHEN Xiu-rong,SHANG Xun-wu. Prediction of potential distributions and risk analysis of Phoma foveata in China[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2014, 23(3): 276-281.

References

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