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Acta Prataculturae Sinica ›› 2013, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (2): 62-70.

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Potential distribution of Tausch’s goatgrass (Aegilops tauschii) in both China and the rest of the world as predicted by MaxEnt

FANG Feng1,2, ZHANG Chao-xian1, HUANG Hong-juan1, LI Yan3, CHEN Jing-chao1, YANG Long1, WEI Shou-hui1   

  1. 1.Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management in Crops, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100193;
    2. Institute of Plant Protection, Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Ji’nan 250100, China;
    3.High & New Technology Research Center of Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Ji’nan 250100, China
  • Received:2012-03-12 Online:2013-02-25 Published:2013-04-20

Abstract: Tausch’s goatgrass (Aegilops tauschii) is a serious weed worldwide. Determination of the potential geographical distribution of Tausch’s goatgrass is an important factor for effectively controlling the spreading of this weed. The potential distribution of Tausch’s goatgrass in China and in the rest of the world were predicted using the MaxEnt model. West Asia, the Middle-east, the Mediterranean coast of south-eastern Europe and northern Africa are the main suitable areas for growth of Tausch’s goatgrass. In China the suitable areas are mainly distributed in Henan, Hebei, Shandong, southwest of Shanxi, Guanzhong Plain of Shaanxi, the central and south of Ningxia, southeast of Gansu, north of Hubei, Jiangsu and Anhui provinces. The global potential distribution area of Tausch’s goatgrass is mainly between 30° to 45° degrees north in the latitude of the main winter wheat producing areas. As the global climate changes, the potential distribution range of Tausch’s goatgrass will vary according to different emissions scenarios. With greenhouse gases under the A1b emissions scenario, by 2050, the potential distribution of Tausch’s goatgrass will have a tendency to expand, while under A2a and B2a emissions scenarios, the low- and medium-risk areas will tend to decrease, but the high-risk areas will not change significantly.

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