Abstract:

The high quality and sustainable development of herbivorous livestock farming is an important part of China’s rural revitalization strategy. As such， it is increasingly important to understand the trends in livestock development in each region to ensure the healthy development of livestock farming and the revitalization of rural industries. In this study， we used data from the “China Rural Statistical Yearbook”， the “Gansu Rural Yearbook” and “Gansu Development Yearbook” to analyze the current situation of cattle （Bovini） and sheep （Caprinae） breeding， including the competitive state within the sector， patterns of livestock transfer， and the livestock center of gravity in Gansu Province at the provincial， municipal， and county scales from 1991 to 2019. These analyses were conducted using a competitive state model based on the ‘Boston Matrix’ and a center of gravity migration model， and included relevant factors related to socio-economic and natural resources. In our model livestock slaughter rates were used as a surrogate for company earnings in the original application of the Boston Matrix to share market analysis and growth in livestock numbers as a surrogate for market growth. It was found that： 1） The competitive state has shifted regularly between the low-quality cycle of “dog-young” （low slaughter rate and breeding rate-high slaughter rate and low breeding rate.） and the high-quality cycle of “star-cow” （high slaughter rate and breeding rate-low slaughter rate and high breeding rate）. It is challenging to achieve gains in development between these two cycles， but such gains were achieved in Gansu Province after 2006. 2） The shift in the competitive state of livestock breeding， the center of gravity of the migration of livestock and natural resources， and socio-economic conditions showed a high degree of fit. The shift in the competitive state can be used as an essential indicator for the selection of appropriate breeding strategies. 3） The next steps in Gansu Province should be to adopt an expansion strategy， expand the star breeding sites （high slaughter and breeding rates）， stabilize the cow breeding sites （low slaughter but high breeding rates）， and consider a tightening strategy for the dog （low slaughter and breeding rates） and young breeding sites （high slaughter but low breeding rates）. The results of this study provide a scientific basis and reference for the rational development of， and strategic planning for， the grass-fed animal husbandry at the regional level.

Key words: competitive state model, herbivorous animal husbandry, center of gravity transfer, strategic choice, Gansu Province