草业学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (1): 300-311.DOI: 10.11686/cyxb20140136
王春梅,杨林杰,常生华,侯扶江*
收稿日期:
2012-03-06
出版日期:
2014-02-20
发布日期:
2014-02-20
通讯作者:
E-mail:cyhoufj@lzu.edu.cn
作者简介:
王春梅(1990-),女,安徽阜阳人,在读硕士。E-mai:wangchunmei927@163.com
基金资助:
WANG Chun-mei,YANG Lin-jie,CHANG Sheng-hua,HOU Fu-jiang
Received:
2012-03-06
Online:
2014-02-20
Published:
2014-02-20
摘要: 我国正处于食物结构转型期,畜产品需求增长强劲,但畜产品和饲料价格持续上涨且容易受其他因素影响。通过分析2008年9月-2013年8月国内、国际主要畜产品与饲料价格的变化规律、相关性和Granger因果关系,结果表明,国内外畜产品和饲料价格整体呈波动上升趋势,且“食草型”畜产品价格高于“耗粮型”畜产品价格,国内主要畜产品和饲料价格均高于国际;除猪肉和牛肉价格外,畜产品和饲料价格的波动幅度整体是国内小于国际;国内猪肉和牛肉价格波动幅度较大,国际是“食草型”畜产品波动幅度较大;国际大豆价格是国内大豆价格变化的原因;国内牛肉价格和羊肉价格是大豆价格变化的原因、国内牛肉价格是豆粕价格变化的原因、玉米价格是鸡肉价格变化的原因,国际牛肉价格是大豆价格变化的原因。由此可见,农业政策、节日效应和饮食习惯等是影响畜产品价格的主导因素;因此,发展草地农业是稳定畜产品价格和确保畜产品安全的有效途径;同时,加大对农牧户的直补力度,并为其生产提供政策支持和服务。
中图分类号:
王春梅,杨林杰,常生华,侯扶江. 国内外主要畜产品与饲料价格分析[J]. 草业学报, 2014, 23(1): 300-311.
WANG Chun-mei,YANG Lin-jie,CHANG Sheng-hua,HOU Fu-jiang. Price analysis of domestic and international major livestock and forage products[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2014, 23(1): 300-311.
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