草业学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (8): 1-13.DOI: 10.11686/cyxb2022370
• 研究论文 •
收稿日期:
2022-09-15
修回日期:
2022-10-10
出版日期:
2023-08-20
发布日期:
2023-06-16
通讯作者:
杨秀春
作者简介:
E-mail: Yangxiuchun@bjfu.edu.cn基金资助:
Hui-long ZHANG(), Xiu-chun YANG(), Dong YANG, Ang CHEN, Min ZHANG
Received:
2022-09-15
Revised:
2022-10-10
Online:
2023-08-20
Published:
2023-06-16
Contact:
Xiu-chun YANG
摘要:
草地植被覆盖度(FVC)是反映草地生态状况最直接的指标之一。目前在大区域内构建准确的FVC估算模型,进行长时间序列的动态分析,仍是一个挑战。基于大量地面调查样本,使用2000-2020年MODIS遥感数据、气象数据,通过随机森林模型进行FVC分区建模与结果估算。利用Sen+Mann-Kendall趋势分析法、Hurst指数法等,分析FVC时空变化特征和未来变化情况。研究表明:1)内蒙古草地FVC随机森林模型精度表现为分区优于全区,有效地降低了空间异质性的影响。2)内蒙古草地FVC总体上呈东高西低的分布格局,空间差异明显。3)近21年,内蒙古草地FVC总体呈波动上升趋势,年增长率为0.2%·a-1;增长区域面积占比(79.5%)大于减少区域面积占比(20.5%),并且极显著增长和显著增长占比(28.3%)远大于极显著减少和显著减少(1.6%)。4)未来内蒙古草地FVC总体为正持续性发展。预测增长区域(57.6%)多于减少区域(42.4%),其中极显著增长和显著增长占比较高(25.9%),未来草地FVC整体向好发展。
张慧龙, 杨秀春, 杨东, 陈昂, 张敏. 2000-2020年内蒙古草地植被覆盖度时空变化及趋势预测[J]. 草业学报, 2023, 32(8): 1-13.
Hui-long ZHANG, Xiu-chun YANG, Dong YANG, Ang CHEN, Min ZHANG. Spatio-temporal changes in grassland fractional vegetation cover in Inner Mongolia from 2000 to 2020 and a future forecast[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2023, 32(8): 1-13.
图1 研究区草地类型分布(a)、海拔分布(b)、调查样地分布(c)以及草地分区(d)
Fig.1 Grassland type distribution (a), altitude distribution (b), survey plots distribution (c) and grassland zoning map (d) in the study area
植被指数Vegetation index | 计算公式Formula |
---|---|
归一化植被指数Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) | |
增强植被指数Enhanced vegetation index (EVI) | |
差值环境植被指数Difference vegetation index (DVI) | |
比值植被指数Ratio vegetation index (RVI) | |
土壤调节植被指数Soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI) |
表 1 植被指数计算方法
Table 1 Calculation formula of vegetation index
植被指数Vegetation index | 计算公式Formula |
---|---|
归一化植被指数Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) | |
增强植被指数Enhanced vegetation index (EVI) | |
差值环境植被指数Difference vegetation index (DVI) | |
比值植被指数Ratio vegetation index (RVI) | |
土壤调节植被指数Soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI) |
图2 解释变量相关性分析及显著性检验经度: Latitude; 纬度: Longitude; 海拔: Altitude; 坡度: Slope; 坡向: Aspect; 降水量: Precipitation; 日均温: Daily mean temperature; NDVI: 归一化植被指数; EVI: 增强植被指数; RVI: 比值植被指数; DVI: 差值环境植被指数; SAVI: 土壤调节植被指数; * : P<0.01.
Fig.2 Correlation analysis and significance test results of explanatory variables
分区 Partition | 训练集Training set | 测试集Test set | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RMSE (%) | R2 | MAE (%) | RMSE (%) | R2 | MAE (%) | |
全区All partitions | 7.3 | 0.9 | 5.6 | 15.2 | 0.6 | 11.8 |
东部分区Eastern partition | 5.8 | 0.9 | 4.8 | 9.2 | 0.7 | 7.6 |
中部分区Central partition | 5.8 | 0.9 | 4.4 | 10.5 | 0.7 | 8.6 |
西部分区Western partition | 4.1 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 6.8 | 0.8 | 5.3 |
表 2 训练集及测试集模型精度评价
Table 2 Accuracy evaluation of training set and test set model
分区 Partition | 训练集Training set | 测试集Test set | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RMSE (%) | R2 | MAE (%) | RMSE (%) | R2 | MAE (%) | |
全区All partitions | 7.3 | 0.9 | 5.6 | 15.2 | 0.6 | 11.8 |
东部分区Eastern partition | 5.8 | 0.9 | 4.8 | 9.2 | 0.7 | 7.6 |
中部分区Central partition | 5.8 | 0.9 | 4.4 | 10.5 | 0.7 | 8.6 |
西部分区Western partition | 4.1 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 6.8 | 0.8 | 5.3 |
图4 2000-2020年内蒙古草地植被覆盖度变化率空间分布(a)、变化趋势分级统计结果(b)、空间分布(c)以及平均植被覆盖度逐年变化(d)
Fig.4 Spatial distribution of change rate of grassland vegetation coverage (a), statistical results of change trend (b) and spatial distribution (c) and annual change of average vegetation coverage (d) in Inner Mongolia from 2000 to 2020
图 5 2000-2020年内蒙古草地植被覆盖度Hurst指数空间分布(a)、分段统计(b)以及未来变化趋势空间分布(c)和分级统计(d)
Fig.5 Spatial distribution (a) and segmentation statistical results (b) of Hurst index and future trend spatial distribution (c) and classification statistical results (d) of grassland vegetation coverage in Inner Mongolia during 2000-2020
图6 2000-2020年内蒙古草地生长季降水量和牲畜数量年际变化
Fig.6 Annual change of precipitation in the growing season and number of livestock of grassland in Inner Mongolia from 2000 to 2020
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