Livelihood capital and herders’ perception of grassland restoration： An empirical analysis based on the Qilian Mountain pastoral area

doi:10.11686/cyxb2025418

Abstract

Abstract:

Grassland degradation presents a serious threat to Chinese ecological security and sustainable development. As the direct decision-makers in grassland management， herders’ perception of grassland restoration is crucial to the ecological recovery of degraded grasslands. This study employs the binary Probit model and multi-angle heterogeneity analysis to analyze the impact on herders’ perception of grassland restoration， of various factors under the five dimensions of livelihood capital. The findings indicate that in terms of natural capital， for every additional 666.67 ha of grassland operated by herders， the probability of their having a positive perception of the grassland restoration status decreases by 1.5%. Regarding material capital， for every increase of 100 sheep units in the number of livestock raised by herders， their perception of grassland restoration status declines by 1.4%. With respect to financial capital， for every additional 10000 CNY of ecological compensation and rewards received by herders， their perception of grassland restoration rises by 3.8%. With respect to social capital， for every one-unit increase in the degree of mutual influence among herders， their perception of grassland restoration increases by 2.0%. Furthermore， for every one-unit increase in herders’ environmental awareness， their perception of grassland restoration increases by 3.2%. There are differences in herders’ perception of grassland restoration between the northern and southern slopes of the Qilian Mountains， the effect of the ecological compensation policy is more significant in the northern slope area， while the number of laborers and environmental awareness of herders in the southern slope area have a more positive effect on their perception of grassland restoration. The design of relevant policies should take into account the role and the different influences of various dimensions of livelihood capital on herders’ perception of grassland restoration.

Key words: livelihood capital, degraded grassland restoration, herders’ perception, Qilian Mountains region, Probit model

Jing JIANG, Jin-hua HU, Gong-cheng HUANG, Xin-ling JIANG, Yu-bing FAN, Zeng TANG, Hua QIN. Livelihood capital and herders’ perception of grassland restoration： An empirical analysis based on the Qilian Mountain pastoral area[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2026, 35(10): 30-47.

Figures/Tables 7

References 62

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省份 Province	样本县 Sample county	调研乡镇 Surveyed township	有效样本数 Number of valid samples （No.）	占比 Proportion （%）
甘肃 Gansu	肃南Sunan	皇城镇、康乐镇、大河乡Huangcheng township， Kangle township， Dahe township	131	16.82
	肃北Subei	党城湾镇、盐池湾乡、石包城乡Dangchengwan township， Yanchiwan township， Shibaocheng township	74	9.50
	阿克塞Akesai	阿克旗乡、阿勒腾乡、阿伊纳乡Akeqi township， Aleteng township， Aina township	79	10.14
	天祝Tianzhu	炭山岭镇、石门镇、松山镇等Tanshanling township， Shimen township， Songshan township， etc	93	11.94
青海 Qinghai	门源Menyuan	仙米乡、苏吉滩乡、皇城乡等Xianmi township， Sujitan township， Huangcheng township， etc	87	11.17
	祁连Qilian	默勒镇、阿柔乡、峨堡镇Mole township， Arou township， Ebao township	102	13.09
	天峻Tianjun	新源镇、生格乡、快尔玛乡等Xinyuan township， Shengge township， Kuaierma township， etc	105	13.48
	德令哈市 Delingha City	蓄集乡、怀头他拉镇、尕海镇等Xuji township， Huaitoutala township， Gahai township， etc	108	13.86
合计 Total	8县（市） 8 Countries （city）	35乡镇35 townships	779	100.00

省份 Province	样本县 Sample county	调研乡镇 Surveyed township	有效样本数 Number of valid samples （No.）	占比 Proportion （%）
甘肃 Gansu	肃南Sunan	皇城镇、康乐镇、大河乡Huangcheng township， Kangle township， Dahe township	131	16.82
	肃北Subei	党城湾镇、盐池湾乡、石包城乡Dangchengwan township， Yanchiwan township， Shibaocheng township	74	9.50
	阿克塞Akesai	阿克旗乡、阿勒腾乡、阿伊纳乡Akeqi township， Aleteng township， Aina township	79	10.14
	天祝Tianzhu	炭山岭镇、石门镇、松山镇等Tanshanling township， Shimen township， Songshan township， etc	93	11.94
青海 Qinghai	门源Menyuan	仙米乡、苏吉滩乡、皇城乡等Xianmi township， Sujitan township， Huangcheng township， etc	87	11.17
	祁连Qilian	默勒镇、阿柔乡、峨堡镇Mole township， Arou township， Ebao township	102	13.09
	天峻Tianjun	新源镇、生格乡、快尔玛乡等Xinyuan township， Shengge township， Kuaierma township， etc	105	13.48
	德令哈市 Delingha City	蓄集乡、怀头他拉镇、尕海镇等Xuji township， Huaitoutala township， Gahai township， etc	108	13.86
合计 Total	8县（市） 8 Countries （city）	35乡镇35 townships	779	100.00

变量名 Variable name	变量描述 Variable description	均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation
被解释变量Dependent variable
自家草场恢复感知Perceived recovery of own grassland	考虑自家草场，最近3~5年如何变化。1=恢复，0=不变或变差Considering the household’s own grassland， how has the grassland changed in the past 3-5 years. 1=recovered， 0=unchanged or deteriorated	0.11	0.31
乡镇草场恢复感知Perceived recovery of township grassland	考虑乡镇草场，最近3~5年如何变化。1=恢复，0=不变或变差Considering the township’s grassland， how has the grassland changed in the past 3-5 years. 1=recovered， 0=unchanged or deteriorated	0.11	0.32
核心解释变量Core independent variable
人力资本因素Human capital factor
劳动力数量Number of laborers	家庭劳动力（人） The number of household laborers （No.）	2.96	1.14
劳动力平均受教育程度Average education level of laborers	1=小学及以下；2=初中；3=高中及以上1=primary school and below； 2=junior high school； 3=senior high school and above	1.87	0.70
自然资本因素Natural capital factor
草场面积Grassland area	实际经营草场面积=承包面积+转入面积-转出面积Actual managed grassland area=contracted area+transferred-in area-transferred out area （666.67 hm2）	1.76	3.74
草场质量Grassland quality	1=差；2=一般；3=好 1=poor； 2=average； 3=good	2.05	0.73
物质资本因素Physical capital factor
家畜数量Number of livestock	年末家畜存栏量Year-end livestock inventory （100 sheep unit）	5.20	5.25
交通机械数量Number of transportation machinery	台Units	1.36	1.55
金融资本因素Financial capital factor
家庭经营收入Household operating income	畜牧收入+其他经营收入Livestock income and other operating income （10000 CNY）	13.70	15.19
生态补奖收入Ecological compensation and incentive income	草原生态保护补助奖励Grassland ecological protection subsidy （10000 CNY）	3.01	4.33
贷款Loan	1=是；0=否1=yes； 0=no	0.53	0.50
社会资本因素Social capital factor
牧户相互影响程度Degree of mutual influence among herders	1=非常弱；2=弱；3=一般；4=强；5=非常强1=very weak； 2=weak； 3=average； 4=strong； 5=very strong	2.65	1.19
与县政府距离Distance from home to county government	您家距县政府的实际距离Actual distance from your home to the county government （100 km）	0.63	0.92
环境意识Environmental awareness	您关心身边的生态环境质量吗？1=非常弱；2=弱；3=一般；4=强；5=非常强You concern about the ecological environment quality around you？1=very weak； 2=weak； 3=average； 4=strong； 5=very strong	4.14	0.99
户主个人特征Household head’s personal characteristics
性别Gender	1=男；0=女1=male； 0=female	0.91	0.29
年龄Age	户主的实际年龄Actual age of the household head （yr）	52.74	10.87
受教育程度Education level	1=小学及以下；2=初中；3=高中及以上1=primary school and below； 2=junior high school； 3=senior high school and above	1.54	0.75
汉语水平Chinese proficiency	1=不会；2=只能听懂；3=简单交流但不会书写；4=熟练交流但不会书写；5=熟练了解且能书写1=cannot speak； 2=only can understand； 3=simple communication but cannot write； 4=proficient communication but cannot write； 5=proficient in understanding and writing	4.06	1.16
少数民族Ethnic minority	1=是；0=否1=yes； 0=no	0.84	0.37
村干部Village cadre	1=是；0=否1=yes； 0=no	0.10	0.30
县级虚拟变量County-level dummy variable
肃南县Sunan county	肃南县=1；其他地区=0 Sunan county =1； Other regions=0	0.17	0.37
肃北县Subei county	肃北县=1；其他地区=0 Subei county =1； Other regions=0	0.09	0.29
阿克塞县Akesai county	阿克塞县=1；其他地区=0 Akesai county =1； Other regions=0	0.10	0.30
天祝县Tianzhu county	天祝县=1；其他地区=0 Tianzhu county =1； Other regions=0	0.12	0.32
门源县Menyuan county	门源县=1；其他地区=0 Menyuan county =1； Other regions=0	0.11	0.32
祁连县Qilian county	祁连县=1；其他地区=0 Qilian county =1； Other regions=0	0.13	0.34
天峻县Tianjun county	天峻县=1；其他地区=0 Tianjun county =1； Other regions=0	0.13	0.34
德令哈市Delingha city	德令哈市=1；其他地区=0 Delingha city=1； Other regions=0	0.14	0.35

变量名 Variable name	变量描述 Variable description	均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation
被解释变量Dependent variable
自家草场恢复感知Perceived recovery of own grassland	考虑自家草场，最近3~5年如何变化。1=恢复，0=不变或变差Considering the household’s own grassland， how has the grassland changed in the past 3-5 years. 1=recovered， 0=unchanged or deteriorated	0.11	0.31
乡镇草场恢复感知Perceived recovery of township grassland	考虑乡镇草场，最近3~5年如何变化。1=恢复，0=不变或变差Considering the township’s grassland， how has the grassland changed in the past 3-5 years. 1=recovered， 0=unchanged or deteriorated	0.11	0.32
核心解释变量Core independent variable
人力资本因素Human capital factor
劳动力数量Number of laborers	家庭劳动力（人） The number of household laborers （No.）	2.96	1.14
劳动力平均受教育程度Average education level of laborers	1=小学及以下；2=初中；3=高中及以上1=primary school and below； 2=junior high school； 3=senior high school and above	1.87	0.70
自然资本因素Natural capital factor
草场面积Grassland area	实际经营草场面积=承包面积+转入面积-转出面积Actual managed grassland area=contracted area+transferred-in area-transferred out area （666.67 hm2）	1.76	3.74
草场质量Grassland quality	1=差；2=一般；3=好 1=poor； 2=average； 3=good	2.05	0.73
物质资本因素Physical capital factor
家畜数量Number of livestock	年末家畜存栏量Year-end livestock inventory （100 sheep unit）	5.20	5.25
交通机械数量Number of transportation machinery	台Units	1.36	1.55
金融资本因素Financial capital factor
家庭经营收入Household operating income	畜牧收入+其他经营收入Livestock income and other operating income （10000 CNY）	13.70	15.19
生态补奖收入Ecological compensation and incentive income	草原生态保护补助奖励Grassland ecological protection subsidy （10000 CNY）	3.01	4.33
贷款Loan	1=是；0=否1=yes； 0=no	0.53	0.50
社会资本因素Social capital factor
牧户相互影响程度Degree of mutual influence among herders	1=非常弱；2=弱；3=一般；4=强；5=非常强1=very weak； 2=weak； 3=average； 4=strong； 5=very strong	2.65	1.19
与县政府距离Distance from home to county government	您家距县政府的实际距离Actual distance from your home to the county government （100 km）	0.63	0.92
环境意识Environmental awareness	您关心身边的生态环境质量吗？1=非常弱；2=弱；3=一般；4=强；5=非常强You concern about the ecological environment quality around you？1=very weak； 2=weak； 3=average； 4=strong； 5=very strong	4.14	0.99
户主个人特征Household head’s personal characteristics
性别Gender	1=男；0=女1=male； 0=female	0.91	0.29
年龄Age	户主的实际年龄Actual age of the household head （yr）	52.74	10.87
受教育程度Education level	1=小学及以下；2=初中；3=高中及以上1=primary school and below； 2=junior high school； 3=senior high school and above	1.54	0.75
汉语水平Chinese proficiency	1=不会；2=只能听懂；3=简单交流但不会书写；4=熟练交流但不会书写；5=熟练了解且能书写1=cannot speak； 2=only can understand； 3=simple communication but cannot write； 4=proficient communication but cannot write； 5=proficient in understanding and writing	4.06	1.16
少数民族Ethnic minority	1=是；0=否1=yes； 0=no	0.84	0.37
村干部Village cadre	1=是；0=否1=yes； 0=no	0.10	0.30
县级虚拟变量County-level dummy variable
肃南县Sunan county	肃南县=1；其他地区=0 Sunan county =1； Other regions=0	0.17	0.37
肃北县Subei county	肃北县=1；其他地区=0 Subei county =1； Other regions=0	0.09	0.29
阿克塞县Akesai county	阿克塞县=1；其他地区=0 Akesai county =1； Other regions=0	0.10	0.30
天祝县Tianzhu county	天祝县=1；其他地区=0 Tianzhu county =1； Other regions=0	0.12	0.32
门源县Menyuan county	门源县=1；其他地区=0 Menyuan county =1； Other regions=0	0.11	0.32
祁连县Qilian county	祁连县=1；其他地区=0 Qilian county =1； Other regions=0	0.13	0.34
天峻县Tianjun county	天峻县=1；其他地区=0 Tianjun county =1； Other regions=0	0.13	0.34
德令哈市Delingha city	德令哈市=1；其他地区=0 Delingha city=1； Other regions=0	0.14	0.35

变量名称 Variable name	自家草场恢复感知 Perceived recovery of own grassland				乡镇草场恢复感知 Perceived recovery of township grassland
变量名称 Variable name	系数 Coefficient	标准误 Standard error	边际效应 Marginal effect	标准误 Standard error	系数 Coefficient	标准误 Standard error	边际效应 Marginal effect	标准误 Standard error
核心解释变量Core independent variable
人力资本因素Human capital factor
劳动力数量Number of laborers	0.038	0.067	0.006	0.010	0.066	0.064	0.011	0.011
劳动力平均受教育程度Average education level of laborers	-0.127	0.119	-0.020	0.018	-0.129	0.114	-0.022	0.019
自然资本因素Natural capital factor
草场面积Grassland area	-0.100***	0.037	-0.015***	0.006	-0.051**	0.025	-0.008**	0.004
草场质量Grassland quality	0.112	0.095	0.017	0.015	0.125	0.091	0.021	0.015
物质资本因素Physical capital factor
家畜数量Number of livestock	-0.093*	0.050	-0.014*	0.008	-0.099**	0.048	-0.017**	0.008
交通机械数量Number of transportation machinery	0.071	0.048	0.011	0.007	0.064	0.045	0.011	0.007
金融资本因素Financial capital factor
家庭经营收入Household operating income	-0.016	0.034	-0.003	0.005	-0.030	0.031	-0.005	0.005
生态补奖收入Ecological compensation and incentive income	0.243***	0.087	0.038***	0.013	0.285***	0.086	0.048***	0.014
贷款Loan	0.037	0.147	0.006	0.023	-0.052	0.140	-0.009	0.023
社会资本因素Social capital factor
牧户相互影响程度Degree of mutual influence among herders	0.130**	0.057	0.020**	0.009	0.105*	0.055	0.018*	0.009
与县政府距离Distance from home to county government	0.038	0.079	0.006	0.012	0.065	0.075	0.011	0.013
环境意识Environmental awareness	0.206**	0.083	0.032**	0.013	0.199**	0.078	0.033**	0.013
户主个人特征Household head’s personal characteristics
性别Gender	-0.146	0.237	-0.023	0.037	-0.031	0.232	-0.005	0.039
年龄Age	-0.008	0.007	-0.001	0.001	-0.007	0.007	-0.001	0.001
受教育程度Education level	-0.058	0.126	-0.009	0.019	-0.039	0.120	-0.007	0.020
汉语水平Chinese proficiency	-0.046	0.072	-0.007	0.011	-0.026	0.070	-0.004	0.012
少数民族Ethnic minority	-0.350*	0.196	-0.054*	0.030	-0.151	0.193	-0.025	0.032
村干部Village cadre	0.189	0.236	0.029	0.037	0.027	0.233	0.005	0.039
县级虚拟变量County-level dummy variable，以肃南县为基准Baseline=Sunan
肃北县Subei county	0.109	0.339	0.022	0.069	0.118	0.312	0.023	0.062
阿克塞县Akesai county	-1.005**	0.447	-0.110***	0.038	-0.602*	0.350	-0.079*	0.041
天祝县Tianzhu county	-0.246	0.273	-0.041	0.045	-0.257	0.291	-0.041	0.045
门源县Menyuan county	-0.311	0.405	-0.050	0.060	0.147	0.379	0.029	0.077
祁连县Qilian county	-0.279	0.315	-0.046	0.051	-0.172	0.308	-0.029	0.051
天峻县Tianjun county	-0.053	0.296	-0.010	0.054	-0.046	0.294	-0.008	0.052
德令哈市Delingha city	-0.173	0.297	-0.030	0.051	0.045	0.281	0.008	0.052
模型拟合度Model fitting statistics
伪R² Pseudo R²	0.159				0.128
样本量Sample size	779				779