Spring phenological characteristics of dandelion and plantain in Shandong Province and their responses to climate change

doi:10.11686/cyxb2020471

Abstract

Abstract:

This study utilized data from phenological observations of dandelion and plantain in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2015 and meteorological data for the same period， to discern factors influencing the phenological variation in spring development of these two plant species. Analytical methods employed included an empirical orthogonal function （EOF）， Pearson correlation and partial least squares regression （PLS）. It was found that： 1） From 2000 to 2015， dandelion and plantain showed a tendency to delayed germination and leaf expansion， which was more obvious in coastal areas. Seasonal timing of florescence was also linked to interannual climate variation at specific sites. 2） Increase in average temperature in winter and February significantly promoted the germination and leaf expansion of the two plant species. Germination， leaf expansion， and early florescence showed a significant negative correlation with cumulative precipitation in January， and germination and leaf expansion also showed a significant negative correlation with sunshine duration in winter. Beside the heat accumulation in winter， the average temperature and active accumulated temperature in March was positively correlated with the early florescence， the influence was gradually stronger from eastern to western Shandong， especially for plantain. 3） Fitted results of the PLS regression model for phenology of dandelion and plantain showed that： the ‘variable importance of projection’ （VIP） values of the average temperature in February， the average temperature in winter， the average surface soil temperature at 0 cm in winter， and positive accumulated temperature in winter were all greater than 1 in the early period of germination and leaf expansion. The VIP values of the average temperature and accumulated growing degree days in March， the average temperature in winter and the average soil surface temperature in winter were all greater than 1 in the early florescence.

Key words: climate change, dandelion, plantain, phenology, empirical orthogonal function, partial least squares regression

Wen-hui GUO, Run-yuan GU, Feng DING. Spring phenological characteristics of dandelion and plantain in Shandong Province and their responses to climate change[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2021, 30(12): 27-38.

Figures/Tables 8

References 24

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分区 Partition	站点 Station	观测时间 Observation time	蒲公英Dandelion			车前草Plantain
分区 Partition	站点 Station	观测时间 Observation time	萌动期 Germination period	展叶始期 Early leaf expansion period	开花始期 Early florescence period	萌动期 Germination period	展叶始期 Early leaf expansion period	开花始期 Early florescence period
鲁西 Western Shandong	惠民Huimin	1985-2015	-	-	-	73±14	78±15	119±16
	德州Dezhou	1985-2015	65±15	72±12	83±22	67±12	73±13	131±39
	菏泽Heze	1991-2015	-	-	-	49±17	63±16	103±12
	曹县Caoxian	1991-2015	55±15	61±13	78±18	56±16	63±15	127±18
	聊城Liaocheng	2000-2015	68±22	75±23	93±17	65±14	77±19	102±14
鲁中 Central Shandong	潍坊Weifang	1985-2015	78±13	83±13	107±17	-	-	-
	泰安Taian	1989-2015	44±13	53±15	86±15	-	-	-
	莒县Juxian	1991-2015	51±17	61±17	85±24	55±19	64±16	111±12
	济宁Jining	2000-2015	47±12	55±13	74±14	52±15	59±14	95±13
	济阳Jiyang	1990-2015	71±14	76±16	97±13	69±14	75±15	108±11
	淄博Zibo	1988-2015	-	-	-	67±23	70±22	113±19
	临沂Linyi	1986-2015	48±16	57±16	91±19	60±20	70±14	116±13
	莱州Laizhou	1990-2015	67±19	75±19	92±14	69±19	75±19	113±21
鲁东 Eastern Shandong	文登Wendeng	1985-2015	67±14	74±15	103±13	-	-	-
	莱阳Laiyang	1994-2015	-	-	-	69±10	73±13	129±8
	胶州Jiaozhou	1987-2015	72±13	81±13	105±21	77±15	82±14	132±23
	福山Fushan	1994-2015	62±16	72±22	93±21	67±17	77±17	122±19

分区 Partition	站点 Station	观测时间 Observation time	蒲公英Dandelion			车前草Plantain
分区 Partition	站点 Station	观测时间 Observation time	萌动期 Germination period	展叶始期 Early leaf expansion period	开花始期 Early florescence period	萌动期 Germination period	展叶始期 Early leaf expansion period	开花始期 Early florescence period
鲁西 Western Shandong	惠民Huimin	1985-2015	-	-	-	73±14	78±15	119±16
	德州Dezhou	1985-2015	65±15	72±12	83±22	67±12	73±13	131±39
	菏泽Heze	1991-2015	-	-	-	49±17	63±16	103±12
	曹县Caoxian	1991-2015	55±15	61±13	78±18	56±16	63±15	127±18
	聊城Liaocheng	2000-2015	68±22	75±23	93±17	65±14	77±19	102±14
鲁中 Central Shandong	潍坊Weifang	1985-2015	78±13	83±13	107±17	-	-	-
	泰安Taian	1989-2015	44±13	53±15	86±15	-	-	-
	莒县Juxian	1991-2015	51±17	61±17	85±24	55±19	64±16	111±12
	济宁Jining	2000-2015	47±12	55±13	74±14	52±15	59±14	95±13
	济阳Jiyang	1990-2015	71±14	76±16	97±13	69±14	75±15	108±11
	淄博Zibo	1988-2015	-	-	-	67±23	70±22	113±19
	临沂Linyi	1986-2015	48±16	57±16	91±19	60±20	70±14	116±13
	莱州Laizhou	1990-2015	67±19	75±19	92±14	69±19	75±19	113±21
鲁东 Eastern Shandong	文登Wendeng	1985-2015	67±14	74±15	103±13	-	-	-
	莱阳Laiyang	1994-2015	-	-	-	69±10	73±13	129±8
	胶州Jiaozhou	1987-2015	72±13	81±13	105±21	77±15	82±14	132±23
	福山Fushan	1994-2015	62±16	72±22	93±21	67±17	77±17	122±19

生育期 Growth period	气象要素 Meteorological factor	鲁东Eastern Shandong		鲁中Central Shandong		鲁西Western Shandong
生育期 Growth period	气象要素 Meteorological factor	蒲公英Dandelion	车前草Plantain	蒲公英Dandelion	车前草Plantain	蒲公英Dandelion	车前草Plantain
萌动期 Germination period	x₁	-0.331	-0.441*	-0.450*	-0.468*	-0.385*	-0.630**
	x₂	-0.714**	-0.712**	-0.717**	-0.788**	-0.569**	-0.831**
	x₆	-0.658**	-0.642**	-0.605**	-0.743**	-0.466*	-0.668**
	x₇	-0.817**	-0.735**	-0.632**	-0.738**	-0.685**	-0.745**
	x₈	-0.530*	-0.383	-0.128	-0.001	-0.260	0.047
	x₉	-0.713**	-0.706**	-0.568**	-0.666**	-0.624**	-0.764**
展叶始期 Early leaf expansion period	x₁	-0.302	-0.455*	-0.445*	-0.414*	-0.376	-0.613**
	x₂	-0.692**	-0.745**	-0.778**	-0.803**	-0.370	-0.756**
	x₆	-0.614**	-0.676**	-0.703**	-0.747**	-0.311	-0.746**
	x₇	-0.772**	-0.823**	-0.684**	-0.762**	-0.562**	-0.769**
	x₈	-0.598**	-0.497*	0.096	0.010	-0.216	0.135
	x₉	-0.744**	-0.724**	-0.657**	-0.728**	-0.480*	-0.760**
开花始期 Early florescence period	x₁	-0.407	-0.449*	-0.476*	-0.102	-0.322	-0.353
	x₂	-0.644**	-0.598**	-0.518**	-0.353	-0.448*	-0.444*
	x₃	-0.718**	-0.571**	-0.753**	-0.732**	-0.670**	-0.600**
	x₄	-0.556**	-0.460*	-0.788**	-0.626**	-0.606**	-0.657**
	x₅	-0.074	0.041	0.205	0.401*	0.133	-0.086
	x₆	-0.792**	-0.597**	-0.595**	-0.339	-0.671**	-0.630**
	x₇	-0.706**	-0.677**	-0.570**	-0.430*	-0.585**	-0.425
	x₉	-0.727**	-0.565**	-0.506**	-0.492*	-0.567**	-0.377

生育期 Growth period	气象要素 Meteorological factor	鲁东Eastern Shandong		鲁中Central Shandong		鲁西Western Shandong
生育期 Growth period	气象要素 Meteorological factor	蒲公英Dandelion	车前草Plantain	蒲公英Dandelion	车前草Plantain	蒲公英Dandelion	车前草Plantain
萌动期 Germination period	x₁	-0.331	-0.441*	-0.450*	-0.468*	-0.385*	-0.630**
	x₂	-0.714**	-0.712**	-0.717**	-0.788**	-0.569**	-0.831**
	x₆	-0.658**	-0.642**	-0.605**	-0.743**	-0.466*	-0.668**
	x₇	-0.817**	-0.735**	-0.632**	-0.738**	-0.685**	-0.745**
	x₈	-0.530*	-0.383	-0.128	-0.001	-0.260	0.047
	x₉	-0.713**	-0.706**	-0.568**	-0.666**	-0.624**	-0.764**
展叶始期 Early leaf expansion period	x₁	-0.302	-0.455*	-0.445*	-0.414*	-0.376	-0.613**
	x₂	-0.692**	-0.745**	-0.778**	-0.803**	-0.370	-0.756**
	x₆	-0.614**	-0.676**	-0.703**	-0.747**	-0.311	-0.746**
	x₇	-0.772**	-0.823**	-0.684**	-0.762**	-0.562**	-0.769**
	x₈	-0.598**	-0.497*	0.096	0.010	-0.216	0.135
	x₉	-0.744**	-0.724**	-0.657**	-0.728**	-0.480*	-0.760**
开花始期 Early florescence period	x₁	-0.407	-0.449*	-0.476*	-0.102	-0.322	-0.353
	x₂	-0.644**	-0.598**	-0.518**	-0.353	-0.448*	-0.444*
	x₃	-0.718**	-0.571**	-0.753**	-0.732**	-0.670**	-0.600**
	x₄	-0.556**	-0.460*	-0.788**	-0.626**	-0.606**	-0.657**
	x₅	-0.074	0.041	0.205	0.401*	0.133	-0.086
	x₆	-0.792**	-0.597**	-0.595**	-0.339	-0.671**	-0.630**
	x₇	-0.706**	-0.677**	-0.570**	-0.430*	-0.585**	-0.425
	x₉	-0.727**	-0.565**	-0.506**	-0.492*	-0.567**	-0.377

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