陇东旱塬区冬小麦粮草兼用农户意愿及影响因素实证分析——基于甘肃省庆阳市323个农户的调查

doi:10.11686/cyxb2017395

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 探索冬小麦粮草兼用农户意愿的影响因素,对推广冬小麦粮草兼用模式,实现农牧业的可持续发展具有重要意义。本研究基于甘肃省庆阳市323个农户的调查数据,运用二元Logistic回归模型,分析农户冬小麦粮草兼用的采纳意愿,并探讨其采纳意愿的影响因素。结果表明,农户对冬小麦粮草兼用模式有采纳意愿的占比为57%,总体意愿程度较高。在影响冬小麦粮草兼用农户意愿的诸多因素中,农户年龄(P<0.05)、年耕作月数(P<0.1)、家庭总收入(P<0.05)、冬小麦种植面积(P<0.1)、了解程度(P<0.05)、前景感知(P<0.01)、小麦产量影响的认知(P<0.01)等变量,对农户采纳冬小麦粮草兼用意愿有显著正向影响;而家庭上学人数(P<0.05)、饲养家畜的数量(P<0.1)对农户采纳意愿有显著负向影响。因此,本研究从提高农业比较收益,拓宽农户获取信息的渠道,加快农村土地流转及继续开展冬小麦粮草兼用优化模式的研究与推广等方面提出增强农户意愿的政策建议。

关键词: 农户, 冬小麦粮草兼用, 意愿, 影响因素, Logistic模型

Abstract: It is important to identify the factors affecting householders’ willingness to cultivate dual-purpose winter wheat to promote the dual-purpose winter wheat model and the sustainable development of agriculture. In this study, we conducted a survey about dual-purpose winter wheat in Qingyang city, Gansu Province, and 323 valid questionnaires were collected from surveyed farmers. A binary logistic regression model was developed to analyze households’ willingness to adopt the dual-purpose winter wheat model and to identify the influencing factors. A relatively high proportion of sampled households (57%) was willing to adopt the dual-purpose winter wheat model. Among the influencing factors, householder age (P<0.05), number of months on the farm (P<0.1), family income (P<0.05), size of winter wheat planting area (P<0.1), knowledge (P<0.05), perception of prospects (P<0.01), and cognitive effects on wheat yield (P<0.01) had significant positive effects on households’ willingness to adopt the dual-purpose winter wheat model. The number of students in the family (P<0.05) and the number of livestock (P<0.1) had significant negative impacts on households’ willingness to adopt the model. In conclusion, we can suggest to policy makers to provide comprehensive information about the comparative benefits of agricultural models, to make information more widely available to farmers, to accelerate the transfer of rural land, and to continue to optimize the dual-purpose winter wheat model.

Key words: household, dual-purpose winter wheat, willingness, influence factors, Logistic model

张文娥, 蒋成芳, 王龙刚, 沈禹颖. 陇东旱塬区冬小麦粮草兼用农户意愿及影响因素实证分析——基于甘肃省庆阳市323个农户的调查[J]. 草业学报, 2018, 27(8): 1-10.

ZHANG Wen-e, JIANG Cheng-fang, WANG Long-gang, SHEN Yu-ying. Willingness of households on the Longdong Loess Plateau to grow dual-purpose winter wheat and influencing factors: A case study based on 323 questionnaires from Qingyang city, Gansu Province[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2018, 27(8): 1-10.

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