Risk assessment of grassland fires at the herder scale： The Dongwuzhumuqin Banner as an example

doi:10.11686/cyxb2020200

Abstract

Abstract:

With global warming， the frequent occurrence of grassland fires poses a serious threat to the environment in pastoral areas. The behavior of pastoral householders is of great significance for judging the risks of grassland fires. This study represents an analysis of fire risk on the herder micro-scale， with herders from 57 villages in Dongwuzhumuqin Banner as the research object. We calculated the natural disaster index on the basis of a survey of herders and （geographic information system， GIS） analyses. Then， we used principal component analysis， analytic hierarchy processes， and weighted multivariate analysis methods to analyze the grassland fire risk assessment index system at the herder scale. We generated a distribution map of grassland fire risk levels in the Dongwuzhumuqin Banner， and verified the accuracy of the risk assessment zoning map using fire spots. The main results were as follows： 1） The weights of the four first-level grassland fire risk assessment indicators in the Dongwuzhumuqin Banner were as follows： 25.85% dangerous， 28.86% exposed， 19.17% vulnerable， and 26.12% disaster prevention and reduction capacity. 2） The overall risk of grassland fires in the Dongwuzhumuqin Banner showed an increasing trend from west to east. The vast majority （86.07%） of the research area was in medium-risk and high-risk fire areas. 3） The fire spots in the study area were distributed along the border line from 2001 to 2018， and increased in abundance from south to north. The burned area was 2338.25 km². The frequency of fires on the national border line was concentrated between two and three times. The proportion of fire spots in the middle and high-risk fire areas was 79.99%. Our analyses indicate that the accuracy of these risk zoning research results is relatively high. The results of this study provide a scientific basis for local government to formulate specific disaster prevention and mitigation policies for grassland fires.

Key words: herder scale, grassland fire, risk assessment, Dongwuzhumuqin Banner

Li-li HOU, Wa-la DU, Shan YIN, Shan YU. Risk assessment of grassland fires at the herder scale： The Dongwuzhumuqin Banner as an example[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2021, 30(5): 1-12.

Figures/Tables 11

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准则层Rule layer	标准层The standard layer	指标类型The index type	数据来源The data source
危险性Hazard	坡度Slope	+	遥感数据 Remote sensing data
	风速Wind speed	+	气象数据Meteorological data
	干雷暴数Thunderstorm number	+	气象数据Meteorological data
	可燃物的量Amount of fuel	+	遥感数据 Remote sensing data
	平均温度Mean temperature	+	遥感数据 Remote sensing data
	降水 Precipitation	-	气象数据Meteorological data
	常住人口 Long-term residents	+	统计数据 Statistical data
暴露性Exposure	房屋面积 Building area	+	统计数据 Statistical data
	草场面积 Meadow area	+	统计数据 Statistical data
	家庭收入 Household income	+	统计数据 Statistical data
	牲畜数量 Livestock number	+	统计数据 Statistical data
脆弱性Vulnerability	老幼人口数 Young and old population	+	统计数据 Statistical data
	牧业收入Stock raising income	+	统计数据 Statistical data
	畜棚圈面积 Covered fold area	+	统计数据 Statistical data
	幼畜数量 Number of small animals	+	统计数据 Statistical data
防灾减灾能力 Emergency response and recovery ability	道路里程 Road length	+	遥感数据 Remote sensing data
	非牧业收入 Non-pastoral income	+	统计数据 Statistical data
	有效井数 Wells number	+	统计数据 Statistical data
	家庭劳动力 Labor force	+	统计数据 Statistical data
	参加医保人数 Medicare number	+	统计数据 Statistical data
	家庭人均收入 Per capita income	+	统计数据 Statistical data

准则层Rule layer	标准层The standard layer	指标类型The index type	数据来源The data source
危险性Hazard	坡度Slope	+	遥感数据 Remote sensing data
	风速Wind speed	+	气象数据Meteorological data
	干雷暴数Thunderstorm number	+	气象数据Meteorological data
	可燃物的量Amount of fuel	+	遥感数据 Remote sensing data
	平均温度Mean temperature	+	遥感数据 Remote sensing data
	降水 Precipitation	-	气象数据Meteorological data
	常住人口 Long-term residents	+	统计数据 Statistical data
暴露性Exposure	房屋面积 Building area	+	统计数据 Statistical data
	草场面积 Meadow area	+	统计数据 Statistical data
	家庭收入 Household income	+	统计数据 Statistical data
	牲畜数量 Livestock number	+	统计数据 Statistical data
脆弱性Vulnerability	老幼人口数 Young and old population	+	统计数据 Statistical data
	牧业收入Stock raising income	+	统计数据 Statistical data
	畜棚圈面积 Covered fold area	+	统计数据 Statistical data
	幼畜数量 Number of small animals	+	统计数据 Statistical data
防灾减灾能力 Emergency response and recovery ability	道路里程 Road length	+	遥感数据 Remote sensing data
	非牧业收入 Non-pastoral income	+	统计数据 Statistical data
	有效井数 Wells number	+	统计数据 Statistical data
	家庭劳动力 Labor force	+	统计数据 Statistical data
	参加医保人数 Medicare number	+	统计数据 Statistical data
	家庭人均收入 Per capita income	+	统计数据 Statistical data

一级指标 First class index	二级指标 Second class index	主成分分析权重 Principal component analysis weight	专家打分法权重 Expert scoring weight	组合权重 The combination weight
危险性Hazard	坡度Slope	0.0306	0.0210	0.0258
	风速Wind speed	0.0542	0.0594	0.0568
	干雷暴数Thunderstorm number	0.0606	0.0702	0.0654
	可燃物的量Amount of fuel	0.0053	0.0104	0.0078
	平均温度Mean temperature	0.0509	0.0387	0.0448
	降水 Precipitation	0.0487	0.0283	0.0385
	常住人口 Long-term residents	0.0243	0.0145	0.0194
暴露性Exposure	房屋面积 Building Area	0.0619	0.0704	0.0662
	草场面积 Meadow area	0.0525	0.0704	0.0615
	家庭收入 Household income	0.0580	0.0838	0.0709
	牲畜数量 Livestock number	0.0617	0.1185	0.0901
脆弱性Vulnerability	老幼人口数 Young and old population	0.0283	0.0170	0.0227
	牧业收入Stock raising income	0.0576	0.0510	0.0543
	畜棚圈面积 Covered fold area	0.0608	0.0607	0.0608
	幼畜数量 Number of small animals	0.0651	0.0429	0.0540
防灾减灾能力 Emergency response and recovery ability	道路里程 Road length	0.0804	0.0917	0.0861
	非牧业收入 Non-pastoral income	0.0162	0.0164	0.0163
	有效井数 Wells number	0.0697	0.0420	0.0558
	家庭劳动力 Labor force	0.0120	0.0156	0.0138
	参加医保人数 Medicare number	0.0459	0.0297	0.0378
	家庭人均收入 Per capita income	0.0552	0.0472	0.0512

一级指标 First class index	二级指标 Second class index	主成分分析权重 Principal component analysis weight	专家打分法权重 Expert scoring weight	组合权重 The combination weight
危险性Hazard	坡度Slope	0.0306	0.0210	0.0258
	风速Wind speed	0.0542	0.0594	0.0568
	干雷暴数Thunderstorm number	0.0606	0.0702	0.0654
	可燃物的量Amount of fuel	0.0053	0.0104	0.0078
	平均温度Mean temperature	0.0509	0.0387	0.0448
	降水 Precipitation	0.0487	0.0283	0.0385
	常住人口 Long-term residents	0.0243	0.0145	0.0194
暴露性Exposure	房屋面积 Building Area	0.0619	0.0704	0.0662
	草场面积 Meadow area	0.0525	0.0704	0.0615
	家庭收入 Household income	0.0580	0.0838	0.0709
	牲畜数量 Livestock number	0.0617	0.1185	0.0901
脆弱性Vulnerability	老幼人口数 Young and old population	0.0283	0.0170	0.0227
	牧业收入Stock raising income	0.0576	0.0510	0.0543
	畜棚圈面积 Covered fold area	0.0608	0.0607	0.0608
	幼畜数量 Number of small animals	0.0651	0.0429	0.0540
防灾减灾能力 Emergency response and recovery ability	道路里程 Road length	0.0804	0.0917	0.0861
	非牧业收入 Non-pastoral income	0.0162	0.0164	0.0163
	有效井数 Wells number	0.0697	0.0420	0.0558
	家庭劳动力 Labor force	0.0120	0.0156	0.0138
	参加医保人数 Medicare number	0.0459	0.0297	0.0378
	家庭人均收入 Per capita income	0.0552	0.0472	0.0512

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