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草业学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (12): 1-16.DOI: 10.11686/cyxb2021458

• 研究论文 •    

新疆草地质量对气候变化的响应及其变化趋势

陈宸1,2(), 井长青1, 赵苇康1, 许玉凤2()   

  1. 1.新疆农业大学草业学院,新疆草地资源与生态重点实验室,西部干旱荒漠区草地资源与生态教育部重点实验室,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830052
    2.黔南民族师范学院旅游与资源环境学院,贵州 都匀 558000
  • 收稿日期:2021-12-10 修回日期:2022-03-14 出版日期:2022-12-20 发布日期:2022-10-17
  • 通讯作者: 许玉凤
  • 作者简介:E-mail: 1546246929@qq.com
    陈宸(1994-),男,山东聊城人,在读硕士。E-mail: sdaucc@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(42161024);自治区重点实验室开放课题(2020D04037);贵州省科技计划项目(黔科合基础[2018]1145)

Grassland quality response to climate change in Xinjiang and predicted future trends

Chen CHEN1,2(), Chang-qing JING1, Wei-kang ZHAO1, Yu-feng XU2()   

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Grassland Resources and Ecology of Western Arid Region,Ministry of Education,Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Grassland Resources and Ecology,College of Grassland Science,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China
    2.School of Tourism and Resources Environment,Qiannan Normal University for Nationalities,Duyun 558000,China
  • Received:2021-12-10 Revised:2022-03-14 Online:2022-12-20 Published:2022-10-17
  • Contact: Yu-feng XU

摘要:

草地是新疆重要的植被类型,是碳源/汇的重要研究对象之一,研究其质量变化驱动力并预估其未来变化趋势具有重要的生态意义。本研究利用归一化植被指数(NDVI)、植被净初级生产力(NPP)和气象资料等数据,应用地理信息图谱确定1980-2020年变化和稳定草地的范围,排除人类活动干扰,分析草地质量变化及其对气候变化的响应;使用Thornthwaite Memorial等模型估算新疆草地质量并预测其2021-2040年变化趋势。研究发现:1)新疆草地质量总体呈上升趋势,高覆盖度草地上升趋势显著;山地草地覆盖度和质量高,沙漠边缘草地覆盖度和质量低;2)新疆草地质量变化的主要驱动力为气温和降水,与降水呈正相关;而超过一定限度的气温会抑制草地质量,且覆盖度越低对气温和降水越敏感;3)通过模型计算的气候生产力能够反映新疆草地质量及其时空变化特征,且草地覆盖度越低,反映越准确;4)在气候变化背景下,未来新疆低覆盖度草地质量提升,其他类型草地质量呈下降趋势。研究新疆草地质量的变化并预估其未来变化趋势,可为其制定生态保护措施、研究碳储量变化等提供参考。

关键词: 草地质量, 气象因子, 模型预测, 新疆

Abstract:

Grassland is a major vegetation type in Xinjiang Province, and is an important component of carbon source-sink calculations. It is therefore important to ecological management decisions to understand the factors driving changes in grassland quality and likely future trends in those changes. We used geographic information maps to eliminate the interference of human activities and determine changes in grassland status and areas of stable grassland from 1980 to 2020, and analyzed changes in grassland quality and its response to climate change using data such as normalized vegetation index (NDVI), vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), and meteorological data, among others. We here estimate changes in grassland quality in Xinjiang and predict grassland quality changes from 2021 to 2040 using the Thornthwaite Memorial model and other models. We found that: 1) The grassland quality in Xinjiang was generally increasing, with a statistically significant rate of ongoing increase. The grassland cover and quality in mountainous areas of Xinjiang was high, while that at the desert edge was low. 2) The main driving forces for grassland quality changes in Xinjiang are temperature and precipitation. The correlation between grassland quality and precipitation was positive. Temperatures exceeding a certain limit were found to inhibit grassland quality. Sensitivity to temperature and precipitation decline was found to be greater when vegetation cover was lower. 3) The grassland quality and its temporal and spatial changes in Xinjiang can be reflected by climatic productivity. The lower the grassland cover, the stronger was the link between grassland quality and climate factors. 4) Under currently predicted climate change scenarios, the quality of low-cover grassland will be improved in the future, while the quality of other categories will tend to decrease. This information on grassland quality in Xinjiang and its predicted future trends can assist in formulating ecological protection measures and in other ways, such as compilation of carbon stock inventories.

Key words: grassland quality, meteorological factors, model prediction, Xinjiang