草业学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (12): 1-16.DOI: 10.11686/cyxb2021458
• 研究论文 •
收稿日期:
2021-12-10
修回日期:
2022-03-14
出版日期:
2022-12-20
发布日期:
2022-10-17
通讯作者:
许玉凤
作者简介:
E-mail: 1546246929@qq.com基金资助:
Chen CHEN1,2(), Chang-qing JING1, Wei-kang ZHAO1, Yu-feng XU2()
Received:
2021-12-10
Revised:
2022-03-14
Online:
2022-12-20
Published:
2022-10-17
Contact:
Yu-feng XU
摘要:
草地是新疆重要的植被类型,是碳源/汇的重要研究对象之一,研究其质量变化驱动力并预估其未来变化趋势具有重要的生态意义。本研究利用归一化植被指数(NDVI)、植被净初级生产力(NPP)和气象资料等数据,应用地理信息图谱确定1980-2020年变化和稳定草地的范围,排除人类活动干扰,分析草地质量变化及其对气候变化的响应;使用Thornthwaite Memorial等模型估算新疆草地质量并预测其2021-2040年变化趋势。研究发现:1)新疆草地质量总体呈上升趋势,高覆盖度草地上升趋势显著;山地草地覆盖度和质量高,沙漠边缘草地覆盖度和质量低;2)新疆草地质量变化的主要驱动力为气温和降水,与降水呈正相关;而超过一定限度的气温会抑制草地质量,且覆盖度越低对气温和降水越敏感;3)通过模型计算的气候生产力能够反映新疆草地质量及其时空变化特征,且草地覆盖度越低,反映越准确;4)在气候变化背景下,未来新疆低覆盖度草地质量提升,其他类型草地质量呈下降趋势。研究新疆草地质量的变化并预估其未来变化趋势,可为其制定生态保护措施、研究碳储量变化等提供参考。
陈宸, 井长青, 赵苇康, 许玉凤. 新疆草地质量对气候变化的响应及其变化趋势[J]. 草业学报, 2022, 31(12): 1-16.
Chen CHEN, Chang-qing JING, Wei-kang ZHAO, Yu-feng XU. Grassland quality response to climate change in Xinjiang and predicted future trends[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2022, 31(12): 1-16.
图1 1980-2020年新疆草地分布其中稳定高覆盖度草地、稳定中覆盖度草地、稳定低覆盖度草地是指该区域1980-2020年间始终是该覆盖度草地;未变草地包括稳定各覆盖度草地及研究期间其覆盖度已发生变化,但分类始终为草地大类的草地。Among them, stable high-coverage grassland, stable medium-coverage grassland, and stable low-coverage grassland refer to the grassland in the region where the coverage has not changed from 1980 to 2020; Unchanged grassland includes stable coverage grassland, and grassland whose coverage has changed during the study period, but is always classified as grassland.
Fig.1 Grassland distribution in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020
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