草业学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (8): 14-27.DOI: 10.11686/cyxb2022358
收稿日期:
2022-09-08
修回日期:
2022-10-31
出版日期:
2023-08-20
发布日期:
2023-06-16
通讯作者:
武振国
作者简介:
E-mail: skywuzg@126.com基金资助:
Xue-min LI1(), Tong-ning LI1, Zhi-yu WU1, Zhen-guo WU2()
Received:
2022-09-08
Revised:
2022-10-31
Online:
2023-08-20
Published:
2023-06-16
Contact:
Zhen-guo WU
摘要:
探索多情景下草地利用变化引起的生态系统服务价值时空演变机制,对于提升草地生态系统服务价值和维护区域生态安全具有重要意义。本研究基于草地综合顺序分类法(CSCS)及生态系统服务价值(ESV)估算方法,测算和分析了2010-2020年内蒙古不同类型草地利用及草地生态系统服务价值变化;利用PLUS模型分别模拟延续发展、草地保护和均衡发展情景下的各类型草地利用情况,并估算其草地生态系统服务价值;通过热点分析法及空间网格工具对比分析3种情景下的草地生态系统服务价值聚集情况。研究结果表明:1)2010-2020年内蒙古草地生态系统服务价值呈增长趋势,共增加101.36亿元,主要贡献来自丘陵荒漠草原草地和丘陵草甸草地;2)相较于2020年,延续发展、草地保护和均衡发展模拟情景下的草地生态系统服务价值均有不同程度的增加,且以草地保护情景下的西部草地生态系统服务价值增加最为显著。3)3种模拟情景下草地生态系统服务价值的热点和冷点均具有分布范围广且聚集的特点,热点区域出现以小区域带动周围呈分散化聚集。研究结果可为研究区草地生态系统平衡恢复和生态安全保障提供科学依据。
李雪敏, 李同宁, 吴芝雨, 武振国. 多情景模拟下内蒙古草地生态系统服务价值时空演变[J]. 草业学报, 2023, 32(8): 14-27.
Xue-min LI, Tong-ning LI, Zhi-yu WU, Zhen-guo WU. Spatio-temporal evolution of grassland ecosystem service value in Inner Mongolia under multi scenario simulation[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2023, 32(8): 14-27.
数据类型 Data type | 精度/格式 Precision/format | 数据来源 Data sources |
---|---|---|
土地利用数据Land-use and land-cover change | 30 m | 中国科学院资源与环境科学数据中心Resource and Environment Science and Data Center (http://www.resdc.cn) |
GDP空间分布km网格数据 km grid data of GDP spatial distribution | 1 km | |
人口空间分布km网格数据 km grid data of population spatial distribution | 1 km | |
降水、气温等气象数据 Precipitation and temperature data | 文本Textual data | 国家气象科学数据中心National Climatic Data Center (http://data.cma.cn/) |
1∶100万行政区划数据 1∶1 million administrative division data | 矢量数据Vector data | 全国地理信息系统资源目录服务系统National Catalogue Service for Geographic Information (https://www.webmap.cn/main.do?method=index) |
1∶25万全国基础地理数据 1∶250000 national basic geographic data | 矢量数据Vector data | |
DEM数据Digital elevation model | 30 m | 地理空间数据云Geospatial Data Cloud (http://www.gscloud.cn) |
社会经济等数据Social economic data | 文本Textual data | 内蒙古自治区统计局Statistics Bureau of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (http://tj.nmg.gov.cn/) |
全国主要粮食品种价格 Prices of major grain varieties in China | 文本Textual data | 国家粮食和物资储备局National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration (http://www.lswz.gov.cn/) |
表1 不同数据精度及来源
Table 1 Different data precision and sources
数据类型 Data type | 精度/格式 Precision/format | 数据来源 Data sources |
---|---|---|
土地利用数据Land-use and land-cover change | 30 m | 中国科学院资源与环境科学数据中心Resource and Environment Science and Data Center (http://www.resdc.cn) |
GDP空间分布km网格数据 km grid data of GDP spatial distribution | 1 km | |
人口空间分布km网格数据 km grid data of population spatial distribution | 1 km | |
降水、气温等气象数据 Precipitation and temperature data | 文本Textual data | 国家气象科学数据中心National Climatic Data Center (http://data.cma.cn/) |
1∶100万行政区划数据 1∶1 million administrative division data | 矢量数据Vector data | 全国地理信息系统资源目录服务系统National Catalogue Service for Geographic Information (https://www.webmap.cn/main.do?method=index) |
1∶25万全国基础地理数据 1∶250000 national basic geographic data | 矢量数据Vector data | |
DEM数据Digital elevation model | 30 m | 地理空间数据云Geospatial Data Cloud (http://www.gscloud.cn) |
社会经济等数据Social economic data | 文本Textual data | 内蒙古自治区统计局Statistics Bureau of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (http://tj.nmg.gov.cn/) |
全国主要粮食品种价格 Prices of major grain varieties in China | 文本Textual data | 国家粮食和物资储备局National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration (http://www.lswz.gov.cn/) |
项目 Item | 2010 | 2015 | 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
面积Area (km2) | 占比Proportion (%) | 面积Area (km2) | 占比Proportion (%) | 面积Area (km2) | 占比Proportion (%) | |
平原荒漠草地Plain desert grassland | 8736.45 | 1.85 | 8631.44 | 1.84 | 18344.72 | 3.49 |
丘陵荒漠草地Hilly desert grassland | 2782.25 | 0.59 | 2801.57 | 0.60 | 4233.94 | 0.80 |
山地荒漠草地Mountain desert grassland | 17.78 | 0.00 | 17.23 | 0.00 | 12.99 | 0.00 |
平原荒漠草原草地Plain desert steppe type rangeland | 124566.62 | 26.45 | 124478.13 | 26.50 | 125372.44 | 23.83 |
丘陵荒漠草原草地Hilly desert steppe type rangeland | 115170.74 | 24.45 | 115268.46 | 24.54 | 115604.15 | 21.98 |
山地荒漠草原草地Mountain desert steppe type rangeland | 2846.12 | 0.60 | 2928.80 | 0.62 | 3348.51 | 0.64 |
平原典型草原草地Plain typical steppe grassland | 65499.92 | 13.91 | 64917.12 | 13.82 | 69366.88 | 13.19 |
丘陵典型草原草地Hilly typical steppe grassland | 91458.81 | 19.42 | 91263.12 | 19.43 | 96634.11 | 18.37 |
山地典型草原草地Mountain typical steppe grassland | 6759.95 | 1.44 | 6757.02 | 1.44 | 10453.77 | 1.99 |
平原草甸草地Plain meadow steppe grassland | 6998.23 | 1.49 | 6921.81 | 1.47 | 10663.73 | 2.03 |
丘陵草甸草地Hilly meadow steppe grassland | 40928.04 | 8.69 | 40551.82 | 8.63 | 63400.72 | 12.05 |
山地草甸草地Mountain meadow steppe grassland | 5263.02 | 1.12 | 5204.42 | 1.11 | 8632.32 | 1.64 |
总计Total | 471027.93 | - | 469740.94 | - | 526068.28 | - |
表2 内蒙古2010、2015和2020年各类草地面积变化
Table 2 Changes of grassland area in Inner Mongolia in 2010, 2015 and 2020
项目 Item | 2010 | 2015 | 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
面积Area (km2) | 占比Proportion (%) | 面积Area (km2) | 占比Proportion (%) | 面积Area (km2) | 占比Proportion (%) | |
平原荒漠草地Plain desert grassland | 8736.45 | 1.85 | 8631.44 | 1.84 | 18344.72 | 3.49 |
丘陵荒漠草地Hilly desert grassland | 2782.25 | 0.59 | 2801.57 | 0.60 | 4233.94 | 0.80 |
山地荒漠草地Mountain desert grassland | 17.78 | 0.00 | 17.23 | 0.00 | 12.99 | 0.00 |
平原荒漠草原草地Plain desert steppe type rangeland | 124566.62 | 26.45 | 124478.13 | 26.50 | 125372.44 | 23.83 |
丘陵荒漠草原草地Hilly desert steppe type rangeland | 115170.74 | 24.45 | 115268.46 | 24.54 | 115604.15 | 21.98 |
山地荒漠草原草地Mountain desert steppe type rangeland | 2846.12 | 0.60 | 2928.80 | 0.62 | 3348.51 | 0.64 |
平原典型草原草地Plain typical steppe grassland | 65499.92 | 13.91 | 64917.12 | 13.82 | 69366.88 | 13.19 |
丘陵典型草原草地Hilly typical steppe grassland | 91458.81 | 19.42 | 91263.12 | 19.43 | 96634.11 | 18.37 |
山地典型草原草地Mountain typical steppe grassland | 6759.95 | 1.44 | 6757.02 | 1.44 | 10453.77 | 1.99 |
平原草甸草地Plain meadow steppe grassland | 6998.23 | 1.49 | 6921.81 | 1.47 | 10663.73 | 2.03 |
丘陵草甸草地Hilly meadow steppe grassland | 40928.04 | 8.69 | 40551.82 | 8.63 | 63400.72 | 12.05 |
山地草甸草地Mountain meadow steppe grassland | 5263.02 | 1.12 | 5204.42 | 1.11 | 8632.32 | 1.64 |
总计Total | 471027.93 | - | 469740.94 | - | 526068.28 | - |
草地类型 Grassland type | 2010-2015 | 2015-2020 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
ESV (×108 CNY) | 变化Change (%) | ESV (×108 CNY) | 变化Change (%) | |
平原荒漠草地Plain desert grassland | -0.193 | -1.20 | 17.888 | 112.53 |
丘陵荒漠草地Hilly desert grassland | 0.036 | 0.69 | 2.638 | 51.13 |
山地荒漠草地Mountain desert grassland | -0.001 | -3.09 | -0.008 | -24.61 |
平原荒漠草原草地Plain desert steppe type rangeland | -0.163 | -0.07 | 1.647 | 0.72 |
丘陵荒漠草原草地Hilly desert steppe type rangeland | 0.180 | 0.08 | 0.618 | 0.29 |
山地荒漠草原草地Mountain desert steppe type rangeland | 0.152 | 2.91 | 0.773 | 14.33 |
平原典型草原草地Plain typical steppe grassland | -1.073 | -0.89 | 8.195 | 6.85 |
丘陵典型草原草地Hilly typical steppe grassland | -0.360 | -0.21 | 9.891 | 5.89 |
山地典型草原草地Mountain typical steppe grassland | -0.005 | -0.04 | 6.808 | 54.71 |
平原草甸草地Plain meadow steppe grassland | -0.141 | -1.09 | 6.891 | 54.06 |
丘陵草甸草地Hilly meadow steppe grassland | -0.693 | -0.92 | 42.079 | 56.34 |
山地草甸草地Mountain meadow steppe grassland | -0.108 | -1.11 | 6.313 | 65.87 |
总计Total | -2.370 | -0.27 | 103.733 | 11.99 |
表3 2010-2020年各草地类型ESV变化
Table 3 ESV changes of grassland types from 2010 to 2020
草地类型 Grassland type | 2010-2015 | 2015-2020 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
ESV (×108 CNY) | 变化Change (%) | ESV (×108 CNY) | 变化Change (%) | |
平原荒漠草地Plain desert grassland | -0.193 | -1.20 | 17.888 | 112.53 |
丘陵荒漠草地Hilly desert grassland | 0.036 | 0.69 | 2.638 | 51.13 |
山地荒漠草地Mountain desert grassland | -0.001 | -3.09 | -0.008 | -24.61 |
平原荒漠草原草地Plain desert steppe type rangeland | -0.163 | -0.07 | 1.647 | 0.72 |
丘陵荒漠草原草地Hilly desert steppe type rangeland | 0.180 | 0.08 | 0.618 | 0.29 |
山地荒漠草原草地Mountain desert steppe type rangeland | 0.152 | 2.91 | 0.773 | 14.33 |
平原典型草原草地Plain typical steppe grassland | -1.073 | -0.89 | 8.195 | 6.85 |
丘陵典型草原草地Hilly typical steppe grassland | -0.360 | -0.21 | 9.891 | 5.89 |
山地典型草原草地Mountain typical steppe grassland | -0.005 | -0.04 | 6.808 | 54.71 |
平原草甸草地Plain meadow steppe grassland | -0.141 | -1.09 | 6.891 | 54.06 |
丘陵草甸草地Hilly meadow steppe grassland | -0.693 | -0.92 | 42.079 | 56.34 |
山地草甸草地Mountain meadow steppe grassland | -0.108 | -1.11 | 6.313 | 65.87 |
总计Total | -2.370 | -0.27 | 103.733 | 11.99 |
草地类型 Grassland type | 情景1 Scenario 1 | 情景2 Scenario 2 | 情景3 Scenario 3 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ESV (×108 CNY) | 变化 Change (%) | ESV (×108 CNY) | 变化 Change (%) | ESV (×108 CNY) | 变化 Change (%) | |
平原荒漠草地Plain desert grassland | 9.287 | 2.749 | 17.955 | 5.315 | 5.606 | 16.595 |
丘陵荒漠草地Hilly desert grassland | 4.607 | 5.908 | 12.689 | 16.274 | 1.932 | 24.779 |
山地荒漠草地Mountain desert grassland | 0.051 | 21.255 | 0.211 | 88.314 | 0.015 | 61.051 |
平原荒漠草原草地Plain desert steppe type rangeland | 6.938 | 0.301 | 15.840 | 0.686 | 4.930 | 2.139 |
丘陵荒漠草原草地Hilly desert steppe type rangeland | 8.611 | 0.404 | 15.189 | 0.713 | 5.467 | 2.569 |
山地荒漠草原草地Mountain desert steppe type rangeland | 0.812 | 1.317 | 1.440 | 2.335 | 0.544 | 8.819 |
平原典型草原草地Plain typical steppe grassland | 11.561 | 0.905 | 21.397 | 1.675 | 7.483 | 5.860 |
丘陵典型草原草地Hilly typical steppe grassland | 8.295 | 0.466 | 17.854 | 1.003 | 7.210 | 4.048 |
山地典型草原草地Mountain typical steppe grassland | 2.573 | 1.337 | 1.328 | 0.690 | 4.066 | 21.121 |
平原草甸草地Plain meadow steppe grassland | 1.744 | 0.888 | 3.639 | 1.853 | 1.158 | 5.900 |
丘陵草甸草地Hilly meadow steppe grassland | 12.217 | 1.046 | 11.546 | 0.989 | 17.404 | 14.910 |
山地草甸草地Mountain meadow steppe grassland | 3.923 | 2.468 | 0.885 | 0.557 | 6.566 | 41.301 |
总计Total | 70.620 | 0.729 | 119.973 | 1.238 | 62.381 | 6.441 |
表4 2020-2030年各类型草地生态服务价值变化
Table 4 Changes in ecological service value of various types of grassland in 2020-2030
草地类型 Grassland type | 情景1 Scenario 1 | 情景2 Scenario 2 | 情景3 Scenario 3 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ESV (×108 CNY) | 变化 Change (%) | ESV (×108 CNY) | 变化 Change (%) | ESV (×108 CNY) | 变化 Change (%) | |
平原荒漠草地Plain desert grassland | 9.287 | 2.749 | 17.955 | 5.315 | 5.606 | 16.595 |
丘陵荒漠草地Hilly desert grassland | 4.607 | 5.908 | 12.689 | 16.274 | 1.932 | 24.779 |
山地荒漠草地Mountain desert grassland | 0.051 | 21.255 | 0.211 | 88.314 | 0.015 | 61.051 |
平原荒漠草原草地Plain desert steppe type rangeland | 6.938 | 0.301 | 15.840 | 0.686 | 4.930 | 2.139 |
丘陵荒漠草原草地Hilly desert steppe type rangeland | 8.611 | 0.404 | 15.189 | 0.713 | 5.467 | 2.569 |
山地荒漠草原草地Mountain desert steppe type rangeland | 0.812 | 1.317 | 1.440 | 2.335 | 0.544 | 8.819 |
平原典型草原草地Plain typical steppe grassland | 11.561 | 0.905 | 21.397 | 1.675 | 7.483 | 5.860 |
丘陵典型草原草地Hilly typical steppe grassland | 8.295 | 0.466 | 17.854 | 1.003 | 7.210 | 4.048 |
山地典型草原草地Mountain typical steppe grassland | 2.573 | 1.337 | 1.328 | 0.690 | 4.066 | 21.121 |
平原草甸草地Plain meadow steppe grassland | 1.744 | 0.888 | 3.639 | 1.853 | 1.158 | 5.900 |
丘陵草甸草地Hilly meadow steppe grassland | 12.217 | 1.046 | 11.546 | 0.989 | 17.404 | 14.910 |
山地草甸草地Mountain meadow steppe grassland | 3.923 | 2.468 | 0.885 | 0.557 | 6.566 | 41.301 |
总计Total | 70.620 | 0.729 | 119.973 | 1.238 | 62.381 | 6.441 |
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