Change in grassland productivity in Qinghai Province and its driving factors

doi:10.11686/cyxb2021256

Abstract

Abstract:

In recent years， grassland in Qinghai province has been affected by climate change and variously impacted by a range of human activities， sometimes causing degradation and sometimes facilitating restoration. Here we report a survey of the spatial and temporal variation in grassland productivity across Qinghai Province for the period from 2001-2017. To extract data on grassland net primary productivity （NPP， MOD17A3HGF.006）， Sen’s slope together with the Mann-Kendall test （Sen-MK）， correlation analysis and residual analysis were used as decision nodes of a decision tree. Then we used the tree to evaluate grassland NPP time trends and their spatial heterogeneity during the study period and identify associated factors that may be change drivers. The results were as follows： 1） There were 11.41×10⁴ km² of grassland with significant （P<0.05） NPP trends in Qinghai Province during the 2001-2017 period. The areas of extremely significant （P<0.01） increase， significant （0.01≤P<0.05） increase， significant decrease and extremely significant decrease were respectively 11.88%， 17.25%， 0.20% and 0.08% of the grassland in the province. Remarkably， the overall change is a rise in NPP. 2） For the regions where grassland NPP trends were significant， the proportion explained by temperature was the largest （60.66%）， followed by human activities （23.45%） and human activities + temperature （9.49%）. Hence， temperature and human activities were the major factors driving significant grassland NPP trends. 3） Temperature， precipitation and human activities mainly had positive impacts on NPP. Human activities were the dominant factor linked with grassland degradation and were associated with 77.49% of the grassland area with a decreasing NPP trend. However， human activities have also achieved remarkable results in grassland restoration and ecological protection projects in Qinghai Province.

Key words: grassland, net primary productivity, driving factors, decision tree, Qinghai Province

Ya-hui WANG, Wen-jia TANG, Sen LI, Hong-yan ZHAO, Jia-li XIE, Chao MA, Chang-zhen YAN. Change in grassland productivity in Qinghai Province and its driving factors[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2022, 31(2): 1-13.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig.1 The location and grassland distribution of the study area

Table 1 Classification of grassland NPP trends

趋势 Trends	Sen斜率 Sen slope （β）	MK检验 MK test （Z）
极显著增加 Extremely significant increase	β>0	Z>2.58
显著增加 Significant increase	β>0	1.96<Z≤2.58
变化不显著 No significant trend	? β	-1.96≤Z≤1.96
显著减少 Significant decrease	β<0	-2.58≤Z<-1.96
极显著减少 Extremely significant decrease	β<0	Z<-2.58

Fig.2 The decision tree to distinguish combination types of dominant factors driving significant grassland NPP changes

Fig.3 Spatial distribution of multi-year average grassland NPP in Qinghai Province during 2001-2017

Fig.4 Inter-annual variations of average grassland NPP， average temperature and average precipitation in Qinghai Province during 2001-2017

Fig.5 Spatial distribution of NPP trends in Qinghai Province grasslands during 2001-2017

Fig.6 Spatial distribution of the combination types of dominant factors driving significant grassland NPP changes in Qinghai Province during 2001-2017

Fig.7 Spatial distribution of effect of temperature （a）， precipitation （b） and human activities （c） on grassland NPP in Qinghai Province during 2001-2017

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