Using the model MaxEnt to predict plant distribution patterns of different functional groups in the alpine meadow ecosystem on Sichuan-Yunnan Plateau

doi:10.11686/cyxb2023146

Abstract

Abstract:

This research explored the spatial distribution patterns of different main functional groups in the alpine meadow ecosystem on the Sichuan-Yunnan Plateau. Data used were from the second scientific research program on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau from 2019 to 2021. The aim was to identify suitable habitats for functional groups， the main climatic factors affecting functional group distribution， and the change trends under climate change. The model MaxEnt was used to predict the special distribution pattern and the main relating climatic factors of four major species from four functional groups （Cyperaceae： Kobresia humilis； Poaceae： Elymus nutans； Mixed grass： Potentilla anserina and Fabaceae： Gueldenstaedtia diversifolia）. The results showed that the areas of suitable habitats for K. humilis， E. nutans， P. anserina and G. diversifolia under the current climate conditions were 110900， 92300， 171200 and 165300 km² respectively， mainly located in the central and northern regions of the Sichuan-Yunnan Plateau. The contribution rate and response curve for environmental factors showed that the habitat suitability of the four species had similarities with their ecological environment requirements. The temperature-related factors such as annual temperature range， isothermality and annual mean temperature were the main environmental factors to affect species distribution. From the future perspective， the suitable habitat of the alpine herbage species will expand under global warming， and the suitable average altitude will increase 100-200 m， but the rate of change will tend to slow down. In conclusion， the species diversity， biomass and stability of alpine meadow ecosystems is predicted to increase with climate change.

Key words: Sichuan-Yunnan Plateau, alpine meadow, function group, climate change, habitat suitability

Zhi-yuan YOU, Shu-juan MA, Chang-ting WANG, Lu-ming DING, Xiao-yan SONG, Gao-fei YIN, Jun MAO. Using the model MaxEnt to predict plant distribution patterns of different functional groups in the alpine meadow ecosystem on Sichuan-Yunnan Plateau[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2024, 33(3): 1-12.

Figures/Tables 7

References 52

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模型评估指标Model evaluation metrics	矮嵩草K. humilis	垂穗披碱草E. nutans	鹅绒委陵菜P. anserina	异叶米口袋G. diversifolia
训练集AUC值Training AUC	0.9462	0.9503	0.9128	0.9082
测试集AUC值Testing AUC	0.9309	0.9365	0.8701	0.8967
AUC标准偏差AUC standard deviation （SD）	0.0178	0.0187	0.0344	0.0311

模型评估指标Model evaluation metrics	矮嵩草K. humilis	垂穗披碱草E. nutans	鹅绒委陵菜P. anserina	异叶米口袋G. diversifolia
训练集AUC值Training AUC	0.9462	0.9503	0.9128	0.9082
测试集AUC值Testing AUC	0.9309	0.9365	0.8701	0.8967
AUC标准偏差AUC standard deviation （SD）	0.0178	0.0187	0.0344	0.0311

环境因子Variables	矮嵩草K. humilis	垂穗披碱草E. nutans	鹅绒委陵菜P. anserina	异叶米口袋G. diversifolia
年均温Annual mean temperature	13.4	13.2	15.1	17.8
等温性Isothermality	31.5	15.8	27.2	40.3
气温年较差Temperature annual range	49.1	63.7	48.0	33.8
年均降水量Annual mean precipitation	1.6	6.7	6.2	4.8
降水季节性变异系数Precipitation seasonality	3.8	0.2	3.4	2.4
海拔Elevation	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.9

环境因子Variables	矮嵩草K. humilis	垂穗披碱草E. nutans	鹅绒委陵菜P. anserina	异叶米口袋G. diversifolia
年均温Annual mean temperature	13.4	13.2	15.1	17.8
等温性Isothermality	31.5	15.8	27.2	40.3
气温年较差Temperature annual range	49.1	63.7	48.0	33.8
年均降水量Annual mean precipitation	1.6	6.7	6.2	4.8
降水季节性变异系数Precipitation seasonality	3.8	0.2	3.4	2.4
海拔Elevation	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.9

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