草业学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (12): 27-38.DOI: 10.11686/cyxb2020471
收稿日期:
2020-10-20
修回日期:
2021-01-27
出版日期:
2021-11-11
发布日期:
2021-11-11
通讯作者:
顾润源
作者简介:
Corresponding author. E-mail: gry0202@sina.com基金资助:
Wen-hui GUO(), Run-yuan GU(), Feng DING
Received:
2020-10-20
Revised:
2021-01-27
Online:
2021-11-11
Published:
2021-11-11
Contact:
Run-yuan GU
摘要:
基于2000-2015年山东省对蒲公英和车前草物候及气象观测资料,利用正交经验函数、相关分析、偏最小二乘回归研究了蒲公英及车前草在山东境内的春季物候变化特征及其对气候变化的响应规律。结果表明:1)2000-2015年蒲公英与车前草春季萌动与展叶总体表现为推迟的趋势且半岛沿海站点表现更明显,开花始期的年际变化具有局地性。2)冬季平均气温、2月平均气温升高会极显著促进两种植物的萌动、展叶。1月累积降水量与两种植物的萌动、展叶、开花始期总体显著负相关。鲁东地区两种草本植物的萌动、展叶与冬季日照时长显著负相关。在开花始期,除了冬季热量累积之外,从鲁东到鲁西3月平均气温及活动积温的影响逐渐加强,车前草表现更为明显。3)蒲公英与车前草偏最小二乘物候回归模型拟合结果表明,在萌动、展叶始期,2月平均气温、冬季平均气温、冬季0 cm平均地表温度、冬季正积温VIP值均大于1。在开花始期, 3月平均气温、3月活动积温、冬季平均气温、冬季0 cm平均地表温度在所有地区VIP值均大于1。
郭文慧, 顾润源, 丁锋. 蒲公英和车前草在山东境内的春季物候特征及对气候变化的响应[J]. 草业学报, 2021, 30(12): 27-38.
Wen-hui GUO, Run-yuan GU, Feng DING. Spring phenological characteristics of dandelion and plantain in Shandong Province and their responses to climate change[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2021, 30(12): 27-38.
图1 山东地面高程及气象、物候观测站分布
Fig.1 Digital elevation map and the distribution of meteorological and phenological observation stations of the Shandong Province
分区 Partition | 站点 Station | 观测时间 Observation time | 蒲公英Dandelion | 车前草Plantain | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
萌动期 Germination period | 展叶始期 Early leaf expansion period | 开花始期 Early florescence period | 萌动期 Germination period | 展叶始期 Early leaf expansion period | 开花始期 Early florescence period | |||
鲁西 Western Shandong | 惠民Huimin | 1985-2015 | - | - | - | 73±14 | 78±15 | 119±16 |
德州Dezhou | 1985-2015 | 65±15 | 72±12 | 83±22 | 67±12 | 73±13 | 131±39 | |
菏泽Heze | 1991-2015 | - | - | - | 49±17 | 63±16 | 103±12 | |
曹县Caoxian | 1991-2015 | 55±15 | 61±13 | 78±18 | 56±16 | 63±15 | 127±18 | |
聊城Liaocheng | 2000-2015 | 68±22 | 75±23 | 93±17 | 65±14 | 77±19 | 102±14 | |
鲁中 Central Shandong | 潍坊Weifang | 1985-2015 | 78±13 | 83±13 | 107±17 | - | - | - |
泰安Taian | 1989-2015 | 44±13 | 53±15 | 86±15 | - | - | - | |
莒县Juxian | 1991-2015 | 51±17 | 61±17 | 85±24 | 55±19 | 64±16 | 111±12 | |
济宁Jining | 2000-2015 | 47±12 | 55±13 | 74±14 | 52±15 | 59±14 | 95±13 | |
济阳Jiyang | 1990-2015 | 71±14 | 76±16 | 97±13 | 69±14 | 75±15 | 108±11 | |
淄博Zibo | 1988-2015 | - | - | - | 67±23 | 70±22 | 113±19 | |
临沂Linyi | 1986-2015 | 48±16 | 57±16 | 91±19 | 60±20 | 70±14 | 116±13 | |
莱州Laizhou | 1990-2015 | 67±19 | 75±19 | 92±14 | 69±19 | 75±19 | 113±21 | |
鲁东 Eastern Shandong | 文登Wendeng | 1985-2015 | 67±14 | 74±15 | 103±13 | - | - | - |
莱阳Laiyang | 1994-2015 | - | - | - | 69±10 | 73±13 | 129±8 | |
胶州Jiaozhou | 1987-2015 | 72±13 | 81±13 | 105±21 | 77±15 | 82±14 | 132±23 | |
福山Fushan | 1994-2015 | 62±16 | 72±22 | 93±21 | 67±17 | 77±17 | 122±19 |
表1 蒲公英与车前草物候观测站基本情况
Table1 The basic matter of dandelion and plantain phenology observation station (d)
分区 Partition | 站点 Station | 观测时间 Observation time | 蒲公英Dandelion | 车前草Plantain | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
萌动期 Germination period | 展叶始期 Early leaf expansion period | 开花始期 Early florescence period | 萌动期 Germination period | 展叶始期 Early leaf expansion period | 开花始期 Early florescence period | |||
鲁西 Western Shandong | 惠民Huimin | 1985-2015 | - | - | - | 73±14 | 78±15 | 119±16 |
德州Dezhou | 1985-2015 | 65±15 | 72±12 | 83±22 | 67±12 | 73±13 | 131±39 | |
菏泽Heze | 1991-2015 | - | - | - | 49±17 | 63±16 | 103±12 | |
曹县Caoxian | 1991-2015 | 55±15 | 61±13 | 78±18 | 56±16 | 63±15 | 127±18 | |
聊城Liaocheng | 2000-2015 | 68±22 | 75±23 | 93±17 | 65±14 | 77±19 | 102±14 | |
鲁中 Central Shandong | 潍坊Weifang | 1985-2015 | 78±13 | 83±13 | 107±17 | - | - | - |
泰安Taian | 1989-2015 | 44±13 | 53±15 | 86±15 | - | - | - | |
莒县Juxian | 1991-2015 | 51±17 | 61±17 | 85±24 | 55±19 | 64±16 | 111±12 | |
济宁Jining | 2000-2015 | 47±12 | 55±13 | 74±14 | 52±15 | 59±14 | 95±13 | |
济阳Jiyang | 1990-2015 | 71±14 | 76±16 | 97±13 | 69±14 | 75±15 | 108±11 | |
淄博Zibo | 1988-2015 | - | - | - | 67±23 | 70±22 | 113±19 | |
临沂Linyi | 1986-2015 | 48±16 | 57±16 | 91±19 | 60±20 | 70±14 | 116±13 | |
莱州Laizhou | 1990-2015 | 67±19 | 75±19 | 92±14 | 69±19 | 75±19 | 113±21 | |
鲁东 Eastern Shandong | 文登Wendeng | 1985-2015 | 67±14 | 74±15 | 103±13 | - | - | - |
莱阳Laiyang | 1994-2015 | - | - | - | 69±10 | 73±13 | 129±8 | |
胶州Jiaozhou | 1987-2015 | 72±13 | 81±13 | 105±21 | 77±15 | 82±14 | 132±23 | |
福山Fushan | 1994-2015 | 62±16 | 72±22 | 93±21 | 67±17 | 77±17 | 122±19 |
图2 2000-2015年山东省气象要素EOF-1模态EV: 各气象要素的EOF第1模态方差贡献率The contribution rate of the first mode variance of EOF; a: 冬季平均气温Average temperature in winter; b: 冬季正积温Winter cumulative positive temperature; c: 冬季累积降水量Accumulated precipitation in winter; d: 冬季日照时长Sunlight hours in winter; e: 春季平均气温Average temperature in spring; f: 春季正积温Positive accumulated temperature in spring; g: 春季累积降水量Accumulated precipitation in spring; h: 春季日照时长Sunlight hours in spring.
Fig.2 Meteorological factor EOF-1 modality of Shandong Province from 2000 to 2015
图3 2000-2015年蒲公英与车前草春季物候年际变化趋势a1: 蒲公英萌动期Dandelion germination period; a2: 蒲公英展叶始期Dandelion early leaf expansion period; a3: 蒲公英开花始期Dandelion early florescence period; b1:车前草萌动期Plantain germination period; b2: 车前草展叶始期Plantain early leaf expansion period; b3: 车前草开花始期Plantain early florescence period;图中不同颜色代表年际变化率The different colors represent the rate of interannual variation (d·a-1).
Fig.3 Interannual variation trend of spring phenological of dandelion and plantain from 2000 to 2015
生育期 Growth period | 气象要素 Meteorological factor | 鲁东Eastern Shandong | 鲁中Central Shandong | 鲁西Western Shandong | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
蒲公英Dandelion | 车前草Plantain | 蒲公英Dandelion | 车前草Plantain | 蒲公英Dandelion | 车前草Plantain | ||
萌动期 Germination period | x1 | -0.331 | -0.441* | -0.450* | -0.468* | -0.385* | -0.630** |
x2 | -0.714** | -0.712** | -0.717** | -0.788** | -0.569** | -0.831** | |
x6 | -0.658** | -0.642** | -0.605** | -0.743** | -0.466* | -0.668** | |
x7 | -0.817** | -0.735** | -0.632** | -0.738** | -0.685** | -0.745** | |
x8 | -0.530* | -0.383 | -0.128 | -0.001 | -0.260 | 0.047 | |
x9 | -0.713** | -0.706** | -0.568** | -0.666** | -0.624** | -0.764** | |
展叶始期 Early leaf expansion period | x1 | -0.302 | -0.455* | -0.445* | -0.414* | -0.376 | -0.613** |
x2 | -0.692** | -0.745** | -0.778** | -0.803** | -0.370 | -0.756** | |
x6 | -0.614** | -0.676** | -0.703** | -0.747** | -0.311 | -0.746** | |
x7 | -0.772** | -0.823** | -0.684** | -0.762** | -0.562** | -0.769** | |
x8 | -0.598** | -0.497* | 0.096 | 0.010 | -0.216 | 0.135 | |
x9 | -0.744** | -0.724** | -0.657** | -0.728** | -0.480* | -0.760** | |
开花始期 Early florescence period | x1 | -0.407 | -0.449* | -0.476* | -0.102 | -0.322 | -0.353 |
x2 | -0.644** | -0.598** | -0.518** | -0.353 | -0.448* | -0.444* | |
x3 | -0.718** | -0.571** | -0.753** | -0.732** | -0.670** | -0.600** | |
x4 | -0.556** | -0.460* | -0.788** | -0.626** | -0.606** | -0.657** | |
x5 | -0.074 | 0.041 | 0.205 | 0.401* | 0.133 | -0.086 | |
x6 | -0.792** | -0.597** | -0.595** | -0.339 | -0.671** | -0.630** | |
x7 | -0.706** | -0.677** | -0.570** | -0.430* | -0.585** | -0.425 | |
x9 | -0.727** | -0.565** | -0.506** | -0.492* | -0.567** | -0.377 |
表2 春季物候期与气象要素的相关系数(2000-2015)
Table 2 The correlation coefficient between spring phenological period and meteorological factors (2000-2015 )
生育期 Growth period | 气象要素 Meteorological factor | 鲁东Eastern Shandong | 鲁中Central Shandong | 鲁西Western Shandong | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
蒲公英Dandelion | 车前草Plantain | 蒲公英Dandelion | 车前草Plantain | 蒲公英Dandelion | 车前草Plantain | ||
萌动期 Germination period | x1 | -0.331 | -0.441* | -0.450* | -0.468* | -0.385* | -0.630** |
x2 | -0.714** | -0.712** | -0.717** | -0.788** | -0.569** | -0.831** | |
x6 | -0.658** | -0.642** | -0.605** | -0.743** | -0.466* | -0.668** | |
x7 | -0.817** | -0.735** | -0.632** | -0.738** | -0.685** | -0.745** | |
x8 | -0.530* | -0.383 | -0.128 | -0.001 | -0.260 | 0.047 | |
x9 | -0.713** | -0.706** | -0.568** | -0.666** | -0.624** | -0.764** | |
展叶始期 Early leaf expansion period | x1 | -0.302 | -0.455* | -0.445* | -0.414* | -0.376 | -0.613** |
x2 | -0.692** | -0.745** | -0.778** | -0.803** | -0.370 | -0.756** | |
x6 | -0.614** | -0.676** | -0.703** | -0.747** | -0.311 | -0.746** | |
x7 | -0.772** | -0.823** | -0.684** | -0.762** | -0.562** | -0.769** | |
x8 | -0.598** | -0.497* | 0.096 | 0.010 | -0.216 | 0.135 | |
x9 | -0.744** | -0.724** | -0.657** | -0.728** | -0.480* | -0.760** | |
开花始期 Early florescence period | x1 | -0.407 | -0.449* | -0.476* | -0.102 | -0.322 | -0.353 |
x2 | -0.644** | -0.598** | -0.518** | -0.353 | -0.448* | -0.444* | |
x3 | -0.718** | -0.571** | -0.753** | -0.732** | -0.670** | -0.600** | |
x4 | -0.556** | -0.460* | -0.788** | -0.626** | -0.606** | -0.657** | |
x5 | -0.074 | 0.041 | 0.205 | 0.401* | 0.133 | -0.086 | |
x6 | -0.792** | -0.597** | -0.595** | -0.339 | -0.671** | -0.630** | |
x7 | -0.706** | -0.677** | -0.570** | -0.430* | -0.585** | -0.425 | |
x9 | -0.727** | -0.565** | -0.506** | -0.492* | -0.567** | -0.377 |
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