草业学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (10): 14-27.DOI: 10.11686/cyxb2023435
王鹏1(), 金正1, 余婷1, 秦康强1, 桑新亚1, 陶建平1,2, 罗唯学1,2(
)
收稿日期:
2023-11-16
修回日期:
2024-01-31
出版日期:
2024-10-20
发布日期:
2024-07-15
通讯作者:
罗唯学
作者简介:
Corresponding author. E-mail: luowx0305@swu.edu.cn基金资助:
Peng WANG1(), Zheng JIN1, Ting YU1, Kang-qiang QIN1, Xin-ya SANG1, Jian-ping TAO1,2, Wei-xue LUO1,2(
)
Received:
2023-11-16
Revised:
2024-01-31
Online:
2024-10-20
Published:
2024-07-15
Contact:
Wei-xue LUO
摘要:
姜黄属植物是我国重要的药用草本植物。然而,目前对其在中国的潜在分布规律仍然不清楚。为了研究姜黄属植物在中国当前的潜在空间分布特征及其对未来气候变化的响应模式,选取莪术、姜黄、郁金3个最具代表性的姜黄属植物作为研究对象,结合这3种姜黄属植物的现有分布记录和相关的气候、地形、土壤等环境因子,应用最大熵(maximum entropy,MaxEnt)模型和地理信息系统方法,预测上述3种姜黄属植物在当前和未来气候情景下的潜在适生区。研究结果表明,利用MaxEnt模型对3种姜黄属植物预测结果的受试者工作特征曲线下的面积(AUC)均大于0.95,预测结果具有较高的精度;3种姜黄属植物目前主要分布在云南、广西、广东、福建、台湾、海南等省份,其中姜黄的适生区面积最大,郁金的适生区面积最小;在未来2090s SSP245气候情景下,3种姜黄属植物均表现为向我国东北方向扩张的趋势,适生面积达到最大;在未来2090s SSP370和SSP585气候情景下,3种姜黄属植物仅有小部分地区发生适生区的收缩和扩张;此外,最干季度均温是莪术潜在分布的关键因子,姜黄和郁金受年平均降水量影响最大。综上,3种姜黄属植物主要分布在我国南部,并有向北扩张的趋势,相关保护部门可基于本研究开展姜黄属植物的种植和扩繁工作,有助于提升姜黄属植物的经济和生态效益。
王鹏, 金正, 余婷, 秦康强, 桑新亚, 陶建平, 罗唯学. 预测姜黄属植物在中国当前和未来气候情景下的潜在分布区变化[J]. 草业学报, 2024, 33(10): 14-27.
Peng WANG, Zheng JIN, Ting YU, Kang-qiang QIN, Xin-ya SANG, Jian-ping TAO, Wei-xue LUO. Prediction of the potential distribution of Curcuma in China under current and future climate scenarios[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2024, 33(10): 14-27.
图1 姜黄属3种植物在中国的样本分布点基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站GS (2020) 4619号标准地图制作,底图边界无修改。Based on the standard map service website GS (2020) 4619 of the Ministry of Natural Resources, the boundary of the base map is not modified.
Fig. 1 Distribution sites of three species of Curcuma in China
代号 Code | 中文名称 Name | 单位 Unit | 代号 Code | 中文名称 Name | 单位 Unit |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
bio1 | 年平均气温值 Annual mean temperature | 10-1 ℃ | bio15 | 降水季节性 Precipitation seasonality | mm |
bio2 | 昼夜温差月均值 Mean diurnal range | 10-1 ℃ | bio16 | 最湿季度降水量 Precipitation of wettest quarter | mm |
bio3 | 等温性Isothermality [(bio2/bio7)×100] | — | bio17 | 最干季度降水量 Precipitation of driest quarter | mm |
bio4 | 季节性温度 Temperature seasonality | — | bio18 | 最暖季度降水量 Precipitation of warmest quarter | mm |
bio5 | 最暖月最高温 Max temperature of warmest month | 10-1 ℃ | bio19 | 最冷季度降水量 Precipitation of coldest quarter | mm |
bio6 | 最冷月最低温 Min temperature of coldest month | 10-1 ℃ | topo_aspect | 坡向 Aspect | — |
bio7 | 温度年较差 Temperature annual range | 10-1 ℃ | topo_elev | 海拔 Elevation | m |
bio8 | 最湿季度均温 Mean temperature of wettest quarter | 10-1 ℃ | topo_slope | 坡度 Slope | — |
bio9 | 最干季度均温 Mean temperature of driest quarter | 10-1 ℃ | soil_BD | 土壤容重 Soil bulk density | kg·dm-3 |
bio10 | 最暖季度均温 Mean temperature of warmest quarter | 10-1 ℃ | soil_sand | 土壤沙粒含量 Soil sand content | % |
bio11 | 最冷季度均温 Mean temperature of coldest quarter | 10-1 ℃ | soil_TN | 土壤全氮 Soil total nitrogen | g·kg-1 |
bio12 | 年平均降水量 Annual precipitation | mm | soil_pH | 土壤pH Soil pH | — |
bio13 | 最湿月降水量 Precipitation of wettest month | mm | soil_ocd | 土壤有机碳密度 Soil organic carbon density | kg·m-3 |
bio14 | 最干月降水量 Precipitation of driest month | mm | soil_soc | 土壤有机碳含量 Soil organic carbon content | g·kg-1 |
表1 环境因子
Table 1 Environmental factors
代号 Code | 中文名称 Name | 单位 Unit | 代号 Code | 中文名称 Name | 单位 Unit |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
bio1 | 年平均气温值 Annual mean temperature | 10-1 ℃ | bio15 | 降水季节性 Precipitation seasonality | mm |
bio2 | 昼夜温差月均值 Mean diurnal range | 10-1 ℃ | bio16 | 最湿季度降水量 Precipitation of wettest quarter | mm |
bio3 | 等温性Isothermality [(bio2/bio7)×100] | — | bio17 | 最干季度降水量 Precipitation of driest quarter | mm |
bio4 | 季节性温度 Temperature seasonality | — | bio18 | 最暖季度降水量 Precipitation of warmest quarter | mm |
bio5 | 最暖月最高温 Max temperature of warmest month | 10-1 ℃ | bio19 | 最冷季度降水量 Precipitation of coldest quarter | mm |
bio6 | 最冷月最低温 Min temperature of coldest month | 10-1 ℃ | topo_aspect | 坡向 Aspect | — |
bio7 | 温度年较差 Temperature annual range | 10-1 ℃ | topo_elev | 海拔 Elevation | m |
bio8 | 最湿季度均温 Mean temperature of wettest quarter | 10-1 ℃ | topo_slope | 坡度 Slope | — |
bio9 | 最干季度均温 Mean temperature of driest quarter | 10-1 ℃ | soil_BD | 土壤容重 Soil bulk density | kg·dm-3 |
bio10 | 最暖季度均温 Mean temperature of warmest quarter | 10-1 ℃ | soil_sand | 土壤沙粒含量 Soil sand content | % |
bio11 | 最冷季度均温 Mean temperature of coldest quarter | 10-1 ℃ | soil_TN | 土壤全氮 Soil total nitrogen | g·kg-1 |
bio12 | 年平均降水量 Annual precipitation | mm | soil_pH | 土壤pH Soil pH | — |
bio13 | 最湿月降水量 Precipitation of wettest month | mm | soil_ocd | 土壤有机碳密度 Soil organic carbon density | kg·m-3 |
bio14 | 最干月降水量 Precipitation of driest month | mm | soil_soc | 土壤有机碳含量 Soil organic carbon content | g·kg-1 |
物种Species | 保留的环境因子Retained environmental factors |
---|---|
莪术C. phaeocaulis | bio3、bio4、bio9、bio12、bio15、soil_BD、soil_sand、soil_TN、topo_aspect、topo_slope |
姜黄C. longa | bio3、bio6、bio8、bio12、bio15、soil_BD、soil_pH、soil_sand、topo_aspect、topo_slope |
郁金C. aromatica | bio3、bio9、bio12、bio15、soil_pH、soil_TN、topo_aspect、topo_elev、topo_slope |
表2 3种姜黄属植物环境因子的筛选结果
Table 2 Environmental factors screening results of three Curcuma species
物种Species | 保留的环境因子Retained environmental factors |
---|---|
莪术C. phaeocaulis | bio3、bio4、bio9、bio12、bio15、soil_BD、soil_sand、soil_TN、topo_aspect、topo_slope |
姜黄C. longa | bio3、bio6、bio8、bio12、bio15、soil_BD、soil_pH、soil_sand、topo_aspect、topo_slope |
郁金C. aromatica | bio3、bio9、bio12、bio15、soil_pH、soil_TN、topo_aspect、topo_elev、topo_slope |
图5 当前气候下3种姜黄属植物在中国的适生区基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站 GS (2020) 4619 号标准地图制作,底图边界无修改。Based on the standard map service website GS (2020) 4619 of the Ministry of Natural Resources, the boundary of the base map is not modified.
Fig.5 Suitable habitat areas of three Curcuma species in China under the current climate
物种 Species | 总适生区 Total suitable habitat | 非适生区 Unsuitable habitat | 低适生区 Lowly suitable habitat | 中适生区 Moderately suitable habitat | 高适生区 Highly suitable habitat |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
莪术C. phaeocaulis | 100.89 | 858.94 | 30.54 | 23.46 | 46.89 |
姜黄C. longa | 155.31 | 804.52 | 67.67 | 30.76 | 56.88 |
郁金C. aromatica | 98.95 | 860.88 | 30.96 | 22.91 | 45.08 |
表3 当前气候下3种姜黄属植物在中国的适生区面积
Table 3 Suitable habitat areas of three Curcuma species in China under current climate (×104 km2)
物种 Species | 总适生区 Total suitable habitat | 非适生区 Unsuitable habitat | 低适生区 Lowly suitable habitat | 中适生区 Moderately suitable habitat | 高适生区 Highly suitable habitat |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
莪术C. phaeocaulis | 100.89 | 858.94 | 30.54 | 23.46 | 46.89 |
姜黄C. longa | 155.31 | 804.52 | 67.67 | 30.76 | 56.88 |
郁金C. aromatica | 98.95 | 860.88 | 30.96 | 22.91 | 45.08 |
图6 2090s时期不同气候情景下3种姜黄属植物在中国的适生区基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站 GS(2020)4619 号标准地图制作,底图边界无修改。Based on the standard map service website GS(2020)4619 of the Ministry of Natural Resources, the boundary of the base map is not modified.
Fig.6 Suitable habitat areas of three Curcuma species in China under different climatic scenarios in the 2090s
图7 2090s时期不同气候情景下3种姜黄属植物在中国的适生区空间格局变化基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站 GS(2020)4619 号标准地图制作,底图边界无修改。Based on the standard map service website GS(2020)4619 of the Ministry of Natural Resources, the boundary of the base map is not modified.
Fig.7 Suitable habitat spatial pattern changes of three Curcuma species under different climate scenarios in China in the 2090s
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